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MARKET TREND CORN CU, Down 6, SOYBEANS SU, Down 17,

August 24, 2015 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCU, Down $.0575; SOYBEANS: SU, Down $.1675; WHEAT: WU, Down $.0725; KWU: Down $.0650     

·         Tighten the seat-belt, turbulence ahead.  Unease with China’s economy multiplies and some pundits are using the word “panic”.  DOW futures are off 390; S&P is 43 lower and the NAS pre-market is 151 lower.  Shanghai plummeted 8.5% overnight; the Nikkei fell 4.6% and the Hang Seng finished 5.2% lower.  Europe’s 3 key bourses are each down 2.8-2.9%.  Fed uncertainty is not helping and perhaps the Jackson Hole summit later in the week will provide some insight.  The $ Index is off nearly a point at 94.085; gold is somewhat of a safe haven good, down only ½% ($6.60) at $1,153 and crude has dropped below $39/barrel

·         T-storm Weather: A few pockets of significant rain expectedly occurred over the weekend in western corn and soybeans areas, most notably including parts of Iowa, Kansas and North Dakota.  Temps average cool to much-cooler than normal through Wed-Thur; maximums mostly in the 70s-80s with minimums in the 50s.  Warming occurs from west to east over Thur-Sat, sending maximums to the 80s with minimums in the 60s across the Corn Belt.  Well-organized rainfall is unlikely across the central U.S. over the next 10 days.  Best chance for 0.25”-0.75” is limited to northwest third of corn and beans from next weekend forward

·         Sep Corn Down $.0575  at $3.5950; Dec Down $.06 at $3.7125.   Funds sell 8 K on Friday

·         Sep SB Down $.1675 at $8.8850; Nov Down $.1775 at $8.7125.   The funds sold 8 K SB; 5 K SBM and 8 K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Down $.0775 at $4.9175; Dec Down $.0775 at $4.9625.   The funds sold 5 K to end the week  

CORN/SORGHUM                 &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;     

·        &nb​sp;USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. corn could be steady vs. last week’s 69%.  Ratings for the same week last year were 73%.  The 5-year average for corn dent is approximately 43% 

·         T-storm Weather—Upper-level high pressure leads to warmer temps starting Thursday that linger into next week with near- to slightly above-normal readings continuing over Aug. 29-Sept. 4; warmest across southwest third of corn

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.77 ¼ Friday; one year ago, the December 2014 contract settled at $3.71 ½

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 114 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. soybeans could be steady to one point higher vs. last week’s 63%.  Ratings for same week last year were 70%.  The 5-year avg. for soybeans setting pods is approx. 88%

·         T-storm Weather: A low chance for significant rain exists in/near Kansas-Nebraska as the warmer pattern begins Thur-Fri, but the main point is that well-organized and significant rain is not expected in most areas into early September

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. spring wheat harvest est. at 70-75% vs. approx. 26% last year & approx. 41% for 5-year avg.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.9 needed; 20.6 last week

ENERGY

·         Lower: CLV15, -1.43, $39.02;  EBV,-$1.72; EBV-CLV, $4.72, -$.29, RBV, -$.0378; NGV, -$.042; HOV, -$.0370

·         Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Friday: Chicago down 1 7/8; New York Dallas eased 1 ½; Gulf and Tampa off 1;  and LA was 1 ¼ lower at $1.65 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were lower: 2013’s down 5/8 at 38-39; 2014’s off ¾ at 39-40; and 2015’s eased 5/8 to 38-39

·         The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread reversed course, widening nearly 2 ¾ cents on Friday to $.0979/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     ​;                        ​                    <​/wbr>

·   ​      Choice boxed beef values decreased $1.56 on Friday, but at $244.90 are up 18-cents vs. last week 

·         Results from Friday’s Cattle On Feed report: On feed Aug. 1, 102.6% of ‘14; Placed in Jul, 99.2%; Market in Jul, 96.5%

·         On Friday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 15-cents higher, but at $87.28 is $1.57 lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index steady at $79.09.  October futures down $1.925 at $62.825 and are $16.265 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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