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Market Trend Corn, CU down 6, Soybeans, SQ down 12 , WU, down 8

July 20, 2015 07:33 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CU down 6; Soybeans, SQ down 12 ½; WU, down 8 ½; KWU, down 9 ½             

·         Interest rates, China and corporate earnings have moved to the forefront as Greece banks reopen.  In Asia, the Hang Seng slipped .04% while the Nikkei closed .25% higher and Shanghai, up .91%.  European markets are all trading higher:  FTSE, +.33%; CAC 40, +.89% and the DAX, +.96%.  The U.S. opening looks positive:  DOW futures are up 21 points; the S&P, 2.25 and the NAS, +6, ahead of major P&L results from Morgan Stanley, IBM, Hasbro and Halliburton today.  Outside markets:  the $ Index is .116 higher at 98.105; gold is $20.30 weaker at $1,111.60  and August crude is down 17 cents at $50.72

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures average above-normal (maximums often reach the 90s) across the Plains through the next 10 days, but taper to near-normal levels (maximums in the 80s or minimums in the 70s) across the eastern Corn Belt.  Scattered thunderstorms form along the edge of coolness over the next few days, resulting in 0.75” to 1.50” of rain from the central Plains through the southern third of the Corn Belt (mainly south of I-80)

·         Sep Corn Down $.06 at $4.1425;  Dec Down $.0575 at $4.2550 .  The Fund sold 8 K to end the week 

·         Aug SB Down $.1250 at $10.0225; Nov Down $.1175 at $9.94.   Funds: Sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM and bought 2 K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Down $.09 at $5.45;  Dec Down $.0925 at $5.5425.    The Funds sold 4 K on Friday

CORN/SORGHUM                          ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;             

·  &n​bsp;      USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. corn could be up one point or down one point vs. last week’s 69%.  Ratings for same week last year were 76%.  The 5-year avg. for corn silking is approximately 56% 

·         T-storm Weather—Beyond the next 10 days, a sustained heat wave is not expected but cooler weather would be ideal in the Plains 

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 13,426 contracts  

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 51.0 needed; 41.6 last week.  Milo—7.1 needed; 3.9 last week

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. soybeans could be up one point or down one point vs. last week’s 62%.  Ratings for same week last year were 73%.  5-year avg. for soybeans blooming approx. 56%

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 7.5 needed; 4.9 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 4,081 contracts

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. winter wheat harvest est. at 70-75% vs. approx. 74% last year and 74% for the 5-year avg.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 19.2 needed; 9.2 last week

ENERGY

·         Weaker:  CLQ15, -$0.17, $50.72; EBU, -0.47; EBU-CLU, +5.57, -$.32, RBQ, -$.0062; NGQ, -$.045; HOQ, -$.0146

·         A weaker trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf off 2 ½; New York down 1 ½; Tampa eased 4; Dallas slid 3 ½; and LA was 4 ½ lower at $1.67 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were lower: 2013’s down 5/8 to 44 ½-45; 2014’s off ½ to 44 ½-45; & 2015’s were ¾ lower at 44 ½-45

·         The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread added $.0539 cents on Friday, settling at $.3766/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​;                        ​         

·         Choice boxed beef values were 65-cents lower Friday at $233.30—lowest of 2015 and down $3.68 vs. last week

·         Over the last 16 trading days, choice boxed beef values have declined $22.82 (8.9%)

·         On Friday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was up a penny at $82.00 and is $2.10 higher vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index $0.34 lower at $80.21.  August futures down $0.325 at $75.675, and are $4.535 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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