HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CU Down 6 ¼; Soybeans, SQ Down 7; WU, Down 6 ½; KWU, Down 5
· Asia closed mostly lower overnight as U.S. earnings reports disappointed and commodity prices fell. The Nikkei lost 1.19%; the Hang Seng was .99% lower while Shanghai managed a .22% close to the upside. Negative sentiment has carried over to Europe where the FTSE is down 1.11% in early trading; France’s CAC 40 is .29% lower and the DAX is off .37%. Pre-market indicators don’t bode well for the U.S. again this morning: DOW futures, off 79; NAS, down 49 and the S&P 500, 8 ½ lower. External markets have the $ Index up .094 at 97.52; the energy complex is lower (Sep WTI, off 56 cents) and gold is $10.90 in the red
· T-storm Weather: Seasonable to cool weather today transitions to very warm to hot weather beginning late in the week and weekend; hottest across the southwest third of corn and soybeans. A seasonable pattern likely begins around next Thursday (July 30) as the high is forced further to the west for at least several days. Scattered thunderstorms form along the fluctuating edge of heat through the period, with widespread coverage of near-normal rainfall most probable
· Sep Corn Down $.0625 at $4.0025; Dec Down $.0625 at $4.1125 . Fund buying was pegged at 2 K yesterday
· Aug SB Down $.07 at $10.1175; Nov Down $.08 at $9.9625. Funds: Bought 5 K SB, 3 K SBM and 2 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Down $.0650 at $5.1825; Dec Down $.0650 at $5.2675. The Funds were estimated to have sold 5 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms are probable to accompany the cooler pattern from late next week into early August, but only near- or below-normal rainfall is expected given closer proximity of drier surface-level high pressure
· ATI Research: Bias is September-November U.S. corn exports will be 400 mbu compared to 408 million last year
· Crop consultant: Utilizing the USDA crop ratings, the 2015 U.S. corn crop is in a little better condition than the long-term average for this time of year
· Ethanol margins: $0.16 per gallon--up vs. $0.12 last week but below $0.99 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Concern rising the fall U.S. soybean export program will fall well shy of trade consensus of 700-750 mbu
· Crop consultant: The 2015 U.S. soybean crop continues to underperform compared to the U.S. corn crop
· ATI Research: Near-term exports of U.S. all wheat are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu per week into mid-August
· T-storm Weather: Much of Argentina’s wheat belt was near to sharply drier than normal sinceJune 1, but the ongoing El Niño event makes it more likely than normal for heavy rain to occur in central & eastern wheat areas later this year
ENERGY
· Lower: CLU15, -$0.56, $50.30; EBU, -0.39; EBU-CLU, +6.34, +$.16, RBU, -$.0307; NGU, -$.0179; HOU, -$.0094
· EIA estimates: crude, -1.6 (API: +2.3); Gasoline, +0.6 (NA); Distillates, +2.0 (NA)
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Tuesday: Chicago up ½; New York off 1 ½; Gulf down ¾; Tampa and Dallas eased 1; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.65 ¼ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs for 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all 7/8 lower at 43 ¼ in a range from 43-43 ½
· The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread gave up a penny, down to $.4029/gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values declined 51-cents on Tuesday to $233.32 and are $2.72 lower compared to last week
· U.S. daily cattle slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 113,000 head vs. 112,000 last week and 114,000 a year ago
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.79, is up $2.76 vs. last week and highest since June 17
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.24 lower at $79.66. August futures up $0.975 at $75.875, but are $3.785 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather