HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CU down 3 ¼; Soybeans, SQ down 5 ¾; WU, down 6¾; KWU, Down 4 ¾
· Growth concerns—China’s pace at a 20-year low/doubts artificial stimulus measures will be successful in lifting stock values weighed on Shanghai as it fell 1.3% overnight/30% since June 1. Hang Seng down 1%; Nikkei gained 1.3%. Europe is lower at mid-day with the DAX and CAC 40 down .40% and .55%; the FTSE is .07% weaker—Eurozone finance ministers meeting today, subject: Greece. U.S. stock futures suggest a higher opening: DOW, +50; S&P, +7.50 and the NAS, +11.00. Outside markets find the $ Index up .733 at 97.21; gold is $8.60 weaker at $1,164.60 and energy futures are higher
· T-storm Weather: A strong but dissipating cool front keeps the Corn Belt around -5F from normal through Friday, and also ends the streak of 17 straight days with above-normal temps for U.S. spring wheat. The front triggers scattered thunderstorms across the central / southern Plains and southeast two-thirds of the Corn Belt into today, followed by significant rainfall from/near Oklahoma through the southeast third to half of the Corn Belt as one or two waves of energy ride the remnant of the front within Wed.-Fri
· July Corn Down $.03 at $4.1550; Sep Down $.0325 at $4.2325. Funds were even on Monday. Dely: Corn, 1,055; Ethanol, 36
· July SB Down $.0625 at $10.2750; Aug Down $.0575 at $10.1650. Funds: sold 5 K SB; 3 K SBM; 7 K SBO. Dely: SBO, 688
· Wheat Down $.0075 at $5.8775; Sep Down $.0650 at $5.8875. Funds bought 3 KMonday. Dely: HRW, 31; SRW, HRW, 250
CORN/SORGHUM         ;
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· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 79 mbu v. last week to 1.846 bbu; 15/16 down 6 to 1.724
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout at 38 mbu; 15/16 at 70 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings up a point to 69% with ATI crop estimate at 13.513 bbu
· Sorghum planting: 97%, which is equal to last year but slightly behind the 5-year average of 98%
· T-storm Weather: Most probable for Plains to be warmer than normal July 15-20; temps taper to near-normal in Corn Belt. Near-average rain most probable across northeast third to half of the central U.S.; below-average south & west
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 30 mbu to 261; 15/16 down 66 million to 259 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings were unchanged at 63% with the ATI crop estimate at 3.663 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat crop model down 2 mbu to 1.462 bbu; HRW, 884; SRW, 389; and White, 189. U.S. HRS model at 559 mbu with significant increase vs. last week (+27 mbu) due to larger harvested acreage per USDA
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout up 12 mbu to 350 mbu and up vs. 289 for 14/15
ENERGY
· Higher: CLQ15, +0.42, $52.94; EBQ, +0.70; EBQ-CLQ, +4.29, +$.28, RBQ, +$.0198; NGQ, +$.036; HOQ, +$.0192
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday (comparisons vs. last Thursday): Chicago and Gulf up ¼; New York down 1; Tampa and Dallas steady; and LA was ½ higher at $1.75 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs for 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all up ¼ at 44.75 in a range from 44 ½-45
· The Aug RBOB/July Ethanol spread settled $.0832 narrower at $3231; trading $.3129/gallon this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values were down $2.47 on Monday, are $5.57 lower vs. the prior week & lowest since June 15
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price increased $2.56 last week to $151.35/cwt but is down $6.26 vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.09 higher but at $81.70, is 2-cents lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.09 at $77.13. July futures $0.05 lower at $78.725, but are $1.595 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather