HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CU, Down 2 ¼; SOYBEANS: SQ, Down 8 WHEAT: WU, Down 4 ½; KWU, Down 3 ½
· In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 finished 0.4 percent lower overnight at 20,519.45, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.1 percent at 23,991.03. China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent to 3,965.33, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.6 percent TO 5,356.50. In Europe, the FTSE 100 is currently down 0.14% at 6,558.88 while Germany’s DAX is 0.71% lower at 10,936.07. In early trading, U.S. stock index futures are lower: DOW, -30; NAS, -12; S&P, -5. Externals: $ Index, -.281 at 96.190; Gold, up $4.79 at $1,120.49 and Sep crude is down $.03 per barrel
· T-storm Weather: The central U.S. turns warmer through Saturday-Sunday as cool surface-level high pressure exits and hot upper-level higher pressure expands, but any heat remains limited to the Plains. A cooler pattern returns Sunday-Monday as a cool front passes. A cool front triggers a few thunderstorms across the western third of corn and soybeans Sunday-Monday, but better rain chances follow for the northwest half to two-thirds of corn and soybeans next week as one or two waves of energy pass. Thereafter, a warmer pattern with some thunderstorms occurs over Aug. 21-26
· Sep Corn Down $.0225 at $3.6150; Dec Down $.0350 at $3.7275.
· Aug SB Down $.08 at $9.85; Nov Down $.0850 at $9.185.
· Sep Wheat Down $.0450 at $4.9875; Dec Down $.045 at $5.045
CORN/SORGHUM      
· T-storm Weather: Some are discussing 2010 as a potential analog year for the 2015 U.S. corn crop. However, June, July and August were each warmer to much-warmer than in 2015, including the #14 warmest August of last 121 years
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.75 ¼ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.73 ½
· ATI Research: New-crop U.S. corn export sales of 200 mbu trail last year by 40% (or 136 mbu) and are the lowest since there were 196 million on the books back in 2006
· Year-to-date 14/15 U.S. sorghum export sales: 334.9 mbu (95.7% of USDA est). Outstanding sales: 31 mbu v. 36 in ‘14
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· November 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.27 Thursday—one year ago, November 2014 futures settled at $10.56
· ATI Research: U.S. new-crop soybean export sales are 356 mbu vs. 665 million last year and are a 7-year low
· T-storm Weather: Near-normal rainfall is most probable for central U.S. soybeans from August 21-26
· Egypt on Thursday purchased 175,00 MT of wheat—115,000 from Ukraine and 60,000 from Russia
· ATI Research: U.S. HRs year-to-date export sales of 104 mbu are down 16% vs. last year but are 3% above 5-year avg.
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLU15, -0.03, $42.20; EBU,+$0.04; EBU-CLU, $7.16, +$.17, RBU, -$.0349; NGU, +$.005; HOU, +$.0042
· Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Thursday: Chicago added ¼; New York up 1; Gulf and Dallas tacked on 1 ½; Tampa climbed 2; and LA was also 2 higher at $1.68 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2013’s eased ¼ to 38-39 ½; 2014’s up ½ at 39-41; and 2015’s off ¼ at 38-39 ½
· The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread is trading at 0.221, which is .-0351 narrower
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values rose $1.07 on Thursday, & at $245.09 are $9.90 higher than a week ago
· Dressed steer weight for week end Aug. 1: 886 lbs, up 2 pounds vs. last week, 882 for 4-week avg. & 874 last year
· On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.51 lower and is down 22-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.22 to $78.45. August futures up $0.775 at $78.625 and are $0.175 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com