HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CU down 1; Soybeans, SQ up 8 ¾; WU, up 5; KWU, up 3 ¾
· Volatility and the Shanghai Composite seem to go hand in hand—traded as much as 5% lower before a rebound left it down 1.68% on Tuesday. The Nikkei finished .1% weaker while the Hang Seng posted a .62% gain. Possibe investigation in the works by Chinese regulators to see if “share-dumping” was behind Monday’s route. Europe was trading in positive territory at mid-day: FTSE, +.89%; CAC 40, +1.35% and the DAX, +1.50%. U.S. pre-markets suggest the “dead feline” bounce possibly, ahead of the monthly Fed meeting: DOW futures, +81; NAS, +21; S&P, +10 3/4. Externals: Gold, -$4.50; $ Index, +.365 @96.97; crude, -$.37
· T-storm Weather: Very warm to hot weather continues into midweek, then fluctuates within a seasonable range (maximums in the low-80s to low-90s) into Saturday-Sunday before the brunt of a cooler pattern begins Sunday-Monday and continues for around one week. A few thunderstorms precede and accompany a cool front that sweeps across the Corn Belt Tuesday-Wednesday. That said, widespread coverage of organized rainfall does not occur, but a few beneficial thunderstorm clusters do occur. A few thunderstorms continue in a generally drier pattern that begins Wednesday-Thursday
· Sep Corn Down $.01 at $3.72; Dec Down $.01 at $3.8250. Heavy fund selling Monday, 25 K
· Aug SB Up $.0875 at $9.70; Nov Up $.1075 at $9.50 Funds: Sold 18 K SB; sold 10 K SBM & 2 K SBO yesterday
· Sep Wheat Up $.05 at $5.0750; Dec Up $.0475 at $5.1650. The Funds sold 5 K to begin the week
CORN/SORGHUM         ;
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 8 mbu v. last week, 1.734 bbu; 15/16 up 65 to 1.519 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 6 mbu at 32 mbu; 15/16 up 15 million at 81 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings up one point to 70% with ATI crop estimate at 13.420 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress, corn silking: 78%, which is above both last year’s 75% and the 5-year average of 77%
· T-storm Weather: It is most probable for topsoil dryness to develop across the southeast third of the Corn Belt into early August, which is where it was unusually wet earlier as recently as mid-July
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout up 2 at 261 mbu; 15/16 down 1 million to 247 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings unchanged at 62% with ATI crop estimate at 3.651 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent spring wheat ratings up one point to 71% with ATI crop estimate at 562 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat harvest: 85% vs. 82% for last year and the 80% avg. Good SRW progress noted
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout up 5 at 375 mbu compared to 294 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLU15, -$0.37, $47.02; EBU, -$.74; EBU-CLU, +5.69, -$.39, RBU, -$.0222; NGU, +$.008; HOU, -$.0180
· Weakness persisted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago off 4 ¾; New York and Gulf down 5; Dallas and Tampa eased 2; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $1.59 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs for 2013 and 2015 down 1 ¼ to 39 ½-41; 2014 declined 1 ¾ to 39 ½-41
· The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread picked up $.0442 per gallon to settle at $.3774 on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values gained $1.57 on Monday to $232.27, but are still down $1.56 compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price declined $2.48 last week to $145.48/cwt & is $17.78 lower vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 39-cents lower but is $1.88 higher compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.19 to $78.53. August futures down $0.15 to $77.525 and are $1.005 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather