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Market Trend Corn, CN Up 3, Soybeans, SN Up 7, WN, Up 4

June 2, 2015 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Up $.0250; Soybeans, SN Up $.0675; WN, U $.04; KWN, Up $.0450

·         A stronger yen pushed the Nikkie down .13%; the Hang Seng lost .47% while the ever-volatile Shanghai Composite rebounded 1.72%. Most major European markets are trading in negative territory despite good employment #’s as the ever-present shadow of Greece looms:  FTSE, -.49%; DAX, -.50%; CAC 40, barely unchanged. U.S. pre-market indicators are lower:  DOW, 12; NAS, -1.50 S&P, -3.  Externals:  June gold, +$2.50 at $1,190.80; $ Index, off a ½ point t 97.345 with energy markets mostly firmer—July WTI is up $.60

·         T-storm Weather: Although coolness breaks across the Corn Belt the next two days, temps average slightly cooler than normal.  Waves of energy trigger thunderstorms in varying areas of the central / northern Plains and northwest half of the Corn Belt into the weekend. The main uncertainty through then regards the southward extent of rain.   The GFS model is fairly dry across wettest areas of southern Kansas and points south, but exceptional soil moisture will make it easier than normal for a thunderstorm cluster to dive southward into a muggier environment than is indicated by computer models; this issue will not be resolved until midweek

·         July Corn Up $.0250 at $3.5475; Sep Up $.0275 at $3.61. The funds sold 4 K to begin the trading week 

·         July SB Up $.0675 at $9.3275; Aug Up $.0625 at $9.1925.  Funds: Sold 5 K SB; sold 7 K SBM and bought 7 K SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.04 at $4.9775; Sep Up $.0425 at $5.03.   Fund buying was estimated at 7 K contracts Monday

CORN/SORGHUM                      &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                 

&​middot;         ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout declines 1 mbu vs. last week to 1.898 bbu

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged vs. last week to 22 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs U.S. corn planting as of May 31 at 95% vs. 94% last year and the 5-year average of 94%.  Corn emergence is 84% vs. 77% in 2014 and the avg. of 79%.  Good/Excellent crop condition ratings steady at 74% 

·         Sorghum planting: 43% vs. 55% last year and the 5-year avg. of 55%

·         T-storm Weather: Next week, the storm track shifts further to the south, thereby helping seasonably scattered thunderstorms focus on the central / southern Plains, southwest half of the Corn Belt, and Delta

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged vs. last week at 331 mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress pegs U.S. soybean planting as of May 31 at 71% vs. 75% last year and the 5-year average of 70%.  Soybean emergence is pegged at 49% compared to 46% in 2014 and the 5-year average of 45%

·         ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat crop model down 2 mbu to 1.459 bbu; HRW, 857; SRW, 405; and White, 196

·         ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 178 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 179 mbu

ENERGY

·         Mixed:  CLN15, $0.52 at $60.73; EBN, +$0.38; EBN-CLN, +4.50, -$.19, RBN, +$.0004; NGN, -$.009; HON, +$.0109

·         Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Monday: Chicago off 2 ¼; New York and Dallas down 3 ½;Gulf slipped 6 ½; Tampa eased 1 ½; and LA was 4 lower at $1.64 per gallon

·         RINs faltered further: 2013’s down 5 ¾ to 44 ½-48; 2014’s off 6 ½ to 44 ½-48 ½; and 2015’s were 6 lower at 44 ½-48

·         The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread gained nearly 1 ¾ cents, settling at $.5635 on Monday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                    &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp; 

·    &​nbsp;    Choice boxed beef values were 71-cents lower on Monday and are the lowest since March 31

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $0.50 last week to $159.42/cwt but is up $15.03 vs. last year

·         On Mon., USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 48-cents and at $86.24, is the highest of calendar year 2015

·         CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.12 at $82.06.  June futures up $0.825 at $84.65 and are $2.59 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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