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Market Trend Corn, CN Up 3, Soybeans, SN Up 4, Wheat, WN, Up

May 14, 2015 07:05 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Up $.01; Soybeans, SN Up $.0050; Wheat, WN, Up $.0325; KWN, Up $.0175

·         “Drifting” seems to be today’s adjective for global stocks—Shanghai and the Hang Seng closed .07% and .14% higher; the Nikkei sold off .98%.   Europe seems a bit skiddish over U.S. growth prospects: the DAX is unchanged; Britain’s FTSE is off .05% and the CAC 40 is trading down .09%.  Wall Street will scrutinize today’s weekly jobless report (consensus:  260 K) for some direction.   So far, 401 K’s look better:  DOW futures, +76; NAS, +23.50; S&P, +9.25.  Outside markets:  June WTI crude is up $.09 at $60.59; gold is $.20 higher at $1,218.30 and the $ Index is again down fairly sharply, off .408 to 93.57.

·         T-storm Weather: A large and slow-moving system turns the central U.S. sharply warmer through the weekend.  The system also develops widespread and heavy rainfall of 1.00" to 3.00"+.  Rain initially focuses on the Plains and northwest half of the Corn Belt today, then all areas Saturday-Sunday, and ends from west to east within Sunday-Tuesday.  Most corn, soybean, and wheat areas turn wetter.  Temperatures cool in the wake of the system, and a few days of drying likely follow, but the overall atmosphere remains similar to that of this week, indicating that more rains are likely next week as additional systems eject from the West

·         May Corn Steady at $3.56; July Up $.01 at $3.6325.   Dely: Corn, 145; ETOH, 0.   The funds bought 1 K yesterday   

·         May SB Down $.0050 at $9.7450; July Up $.0050 at $9.5775.   Dely: SB, 1; SBO, 250.  Funds bought 1 K SB; even SBM; bot 2 K SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.0325 at $4.8475; Sep Up $.0325 at $4.9125.   Dely: HRW, 1; SRW, 18.  The funds were even yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                             &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;          

·     &nb​sp;   Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 24 to 31 mbu old-crop corn, 0-6 new-crop

·         ATI Research: Review of changes in final U.S. corn carryout and average farm price relative to initial projections from the May USDA Supply/Demand report of the preceding year show considerable variability--particularly in recent years

·         T-storm Weather: There is a low to moderate potential for frost in the northern Plains and far northwest Corn Belt Monday morning (May 18) as minimums dip to around freezing (32 degrees F)

·         Ethanol grind: 912,000 barrels per day for week end May 8--up 25 thou vs. last week but 1.1% lower vs. a year ago

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 4 to 11 mbu old-crop, 9-17 new-crop; soymeal, 75-100 old-crop, 0-50 new-crop; soyoil, 0-10 old-crop, zero new-crop

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are estimated at 5-10 million bushels per week

·         T-storm Weather: May 2015 in Oklahoma is very likely to rank among the 10 wettest of the last 121 years, and #1 wettest since 1987

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects -6 to +2 mbu for old-crop all wheat, 11-18 new-crop

ENERGY

·         Mostly firmer:  CLM15, +$0.09; EBM, +$0.40; EBM-CLM, +6.58, RBM, +$.0158; NGM, -$.027;HOM, +$.0154

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Wednesday: Chicago down 3/8; New York off 1; Gulf eased ¼; Dallas and Tampa unchanged; and LA was 2 lower at $1.80 per gallon

·         RINs steady to lower: 2013’s unch at 72 ¼-73; 2014’s up 3/8 to 74-75; and 2015’s off 3/8 at 72-72 ¼

·         The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread narrowed in $.0088 to $.3955/gallon on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         ​                        &​nbsp;         

·         On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values increased $2.21 and are $7.02 higher compared to last week

·         Daily estimated cattle slaughter on Wednesday was 112,000 vs. 102,000 a week ago and 120,000 last year

·         USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 45-cents Wed., is up $6.03 v. last week & has risen 13 consecutive days

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $1.09 to $80.18.  May futures up $0.075 at $81.375 and are $1.195 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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