HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CN Up $.02; Soybeans, SN Up $.0075; Wheat, WN, Up $.0650; KWN, Up $.0525
· Shanghai soars to a new high on ideas of continued stimulus activity, up 2.83% today; enthusiasm extends to other Asian markets with the Nikkei up .30% and the Hang Seng, +1.70%; Kospi, +1.10%. Mid-day trade in Europe is mixed: FTSE, +.29%; DAX, -.44% and the CAC 40, -.29%. U.S. CPI out today with a .1% gain expected on the headline, .2% omitting food & energy. Pre-markets are mixed: DOW, +9; S&P, -.75 and the NAS, +2.50. Yellen speaks today. Outside markets have the $ Index off nearly a 1/3rd of a point to 95.375; the June gold contract is up $7.70 at $1.211.80 and the energy compex is lower with July WTI down $.58/barrel
· There are no changes to the T-storm Weather Outlook as heavy rains affect much of the Plains through Sunday and turning the wettest Plains HRW evenwetter as well as spring wheat in at least South Dakota. Rain also affects much of the Corn Belt and Delta Sunday-Tuesday, slowing corn and soybean planting from west to east, which is not ideal considering that 55% of soybeans were unplanted as of Sunday. Temperatures turn sharply warmer from this weekend forward as maximums return to the 70s-80s in most areas. The warmer pattern remains likely to trigger t-storm clusters across much of the central U.S. fromWednesday onward.
· July Corn Up $.02 at $3.67; Sep Up $.0175 at $3.7325. The funds bought 6 K on Thursday
· July SB Up $.0075 at $9.3925; Aug Up $.0125 at $9.31. Funds: even on SB; bought 1 K each of SBM and SBO
· July Wheat Up $.0650 at $5.2850; Sep Up $.0625 at $5.3575. Fund selling was estimated at 6 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· ; CORN EXPORT SALES surprisingly strong 32 mbu for 14/15. 4-week seasonal sales of 28/week is 15% above average
· SORGHUM EXPORT SALES: 4 mbu old crop and 10.7 new. China coming for new crop in a big way: 80 mbu total on the books against only 14 million this time last year
· 5 Year average increase in corn planting for Monday is 13%,; low 90’s seems more likely
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· SB EXPORT SALES: O/C mid-range at 6.1; 4-week ave of 10 double “normal” seasonal S AM big crop years. N/C weak at 2.8 mbu with YTD sales for 15/16 down 50% from this time last year
· WHEAT EXPORT SALES: O/C at 2.7 exceeds trade range; N/C at 4.7 well short of trade; 116 mbu total 11% below LY
· SBM EXPORT SALES: Mid-range at 103 K MT; 105 K 4-wk average 9% above 5 year pace; exports drop nearly 50% to 107 K and are well below the BOY weekly rate of 195 K to keep pace with the USDA forecast
· Yesterday’s $5.63 close on KWN15 was the highest since $5.65 ½ on April 8th
· SX2015 continues to search for a bottom, losing 1 ¼ to $9.18 ½ on Thursday
ENERGY
· Lower: CLN15, -$0.58 at $60.14; EBN, -$0.73; EBN-CLN, +5.68, off $.13, RBN, -$.0176; NGN, -$.011; HON, 0$.0201
· Ideas weekly ETOH output will be rising pressured most cash markets: Chicago dropped 3 ½ to $1.57 ½; both NY and LA were 1 lower; the Gulf & Dallas retreated 3 cents and Tampa was 2 lower
· RINs—again weaker: 2013’s lost 3 to 67 ½-71; 2014’s slipped 2 ¾ to 68 ½-72; and 2015’s fell 2 ½ to 63 ½-64 ½
· The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread was again pressured, widening nearly 6 ¼ to $.5054; trading $.4861 this am
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values fell $2.76 on Thursday and have declined $3.37 over the last two days
· Average pre-report est. for USDA Cattle on Feed: April placements 102.4%, Marketings 92.4%, May 1 on feed 101.7%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 56-cents on Thursday and is up $3.06 from a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.15 to $83.20. June futures $1.225 higher at $83.77 and are $0.575 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather