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Market Trend Corn, CN Up 1, Soybeans, SN Down 3, WN, Down 4 , KWN,

June 11, 2015 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Up ½;  Soybeans, SN Up 1; WN, Down 4 ½; KWN, Down 3 ¼ 

·         Greece/EU debt talks shifting into “high intensity”, helped lift U.S. markets Wednesday.  Asia ends higher with gains ranging from a modest .32% for Shanghai; the HIS was up .83% and the Nikkei gained 1.68%.  Today, Europe is positive but optimistm seems muted:  FTSE +.30%; DAX, +.66% and CAC 40, +.58%.  May retail sales data and the weekly jobless claims # will set the tone for Thursday’s U.S trade.  Pre-markets:  DOW, flat; NAS, -.30 and SP, -1.50. Externals; WTI down $.76; $ Index, +1/3rd; gold, -$7.50

·         T-storm Weather: A multi-day period of thunderstorms affects the central / southern Plains and Corn Belt through Tuesday, as well as portions of the northern Plains; 1.75" to 3.50" occurs with highest totals from the central / southern Plains through the western Corn Belt.  Upper-level high pressure in the Southeast flattens and expands westward next week, likely resulting in mainly dry and warm to hot weather in southern areas, including the potential for heat in western areas of the central / southern Plains.  Despite a new setup, systems continue to parade across central and northern areas June 17-22, resulting in near- and above-average rain

·         July Corn Up $.0050 at $3.5775; Sep Up $.0050 at $3.6475.  The funds were sellers of 5 K on Report Day    

·         July SB Up $.01 at $9.5050; Aug Up $.0025 at $9.34.  Funds sold 2 K SB; 2 K SBM and were even in SBO trade

·         July Wheat Down $.0425 at $5.0925; Sep Down $.0525 at $5.16.  The funds liquidated 5 K at mid-week

CORN/SORGHUM                                ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;               

​ ·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 16 to 24 mbu old-crop corn, 2-8 new-crop

·         ATI Research: USDA increase in combined Brazil/Argentina 14/15 corn production by 3.5 MMT in Wednesday’s Supply/Demand report confirms what many have been saying and may be negative to U.S. Sept-Nov corn exports

·         T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms initially focus on the central Plains and northwest half of the Corn Belt today

·         Ethanol grind: 992,000 barrels per day for week end June 5--up 20 thou vs. last week and 5.1% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 2 to 6 mbu old-crop, 4-9 new-crop; soymeal, 25-125 old-crop, 0-75 new-crop; soyoil, 5-50 old-crop, zero new-crop

·         ATI Research: USDA increase in Argentina 14/15 soybean production by 1.0 MMT in Wednesday’s Supply/Demand report overshadows minor demand gains in the U.S. balance sheet

·         T-storm Weather: A textbook setup for multiple rounds of thunderstorms into Tues. slows/stops HRW wheat harvest

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects -11 to -4 mbu for old-crop all wheat, 7-15 new-crop

·         ATI Research: USDA boost in FSU-12 15/16 exports by 2.0 MMT in Supply/Demand report reflects strong competition

ENERGY

·         Higher: CLN15, +$0.76 at $60.63; EBN, -$0.74; EBN-CLN, +4.32, +$.05, RBN, -$.0190; NGN, -$.024; HON, -$.0253

·         Notable weakness was seen in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago and New York down 3 ½; Gulf eased 3 ¼;  Tampa slipped 2 ½; Dallas declined 3 ¾; and LA was 2 lower at $1.67 per gallon

·         Rebound in RINs continued: 2013’s gained 1 ¾ to 41-41 ¼; 2014’s added 1 ¾ to 41-41 ¼; and 2015’s up 1 ¾ to 41-41 ½

·         The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread increased 11+ cents on record production, to $.6364/gallon yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​                        &​nbsp;                     

· &​nbsp;       On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were up 46-cents to $247.66, but are down $1.62 vs. last week

·         June live cattle futures have increased $2.975 the past three trading days to settle at the highest price since Jan. 7

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 21-cents higher & at $86.22, is up 61-cents vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.14 to $82.16.  June futures were up $0.10 at $81.30 and are $0.86 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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