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Market Trend Corn, CN Down 1, Soybeans, SN down 4, WN, Up 1

June 18, 2015 07:31 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Down 1 ¾; Soybeans, SN down 4 ¼; WN, Up ½ to ¾; KWN, Steady   

·         The Fed made a rather drastic cut in its 2015 U.S. growth forecast, from 2.3-2.7% in March to 1.8-2.0% yesterday.  This likely rules out an interest rate hike until after September.  Asia did not take the news well:  Shanghai dropped 3.66%; the Nikkei closed 1.13% lower and the HIS was off .22%--less U.S.import demand.  Europe is also weaker this morning—FTSE, -.27%; DAX, -.57% and CAC 40, -.68%--ahead of a possible “take it or leave it” meeting on Greece.   U.S. pre-markets however, are positive:  DOW futures, +61; S&P, +6 ¼; NAS, +15.2 with an eye on the May CPI and weekly jobless #’s. Gold, +17.90; energies, firm; $ Index, dn ½ point

·         T-storm Weather: The remnant of Tropical Storm Bill curves northeastward into the weekend, producing heavy rainfall of 2.00" to 4.00" across the southeast third of the Corn Belt and potentially adjacent areas of the northern Delta.  Separately, waves of energy trigger thunderstorm clusters in varying areas of the northern Plains and Corn Belt through 7-10 days, resulting in above-average rainfall of 1.50" to 3.00" through the period.  A period of heat begins this weekend in the central / southern Plains and blasts eastward as next week progresses.  Heat is likely to break June 25-26 as a large system in southeast Canada sends cooler air south

·         July Corn Dn $.0175 at $3.5750; Sep Down $.0150 at $3.6375.  The funds were again buyers of 7 K on excessive moisture concerns

·         July SB Down $.0425 at $9.6475; Aug Down $.03 at $9.5075. The funds:  bought 6 K SB; 4 K SBM and even on SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.0075 at $4.925 Sep Up $.0025 at $4.9725.  The funds bought 4 K at midd-week   

CORN/SORGHUM                            &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                  

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 16 to 24 mbu old-crop corn, 2-8 new-crop

·         ATI Research: Accumulated rainfall since May 1 in Central Illinois was 11.82” as of June 16, which is nearly double the 2014 total of 6.11” and up 75% vs. the average of 6.74” for the period

·         T-storm Weather: 36% of U.S. corn production received at least four weeks of normal rainfall over the last two weeks

·         Ethanol grind: 980,000 barrels per day for week end June 12--down 12 thou vs. last week but up 0.8% vs. a year ago

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 4 to 9 mbu old-crop, 6-13 new-crop; soymeal, 50-150 old-crop, 0-100 new-crop; soyoil, 0-10 old-crop, zero new-crop

·         ATI Research: Chinese soybean crush margins declined sharply since early Fall (2014) into the first of the year.  After recovering slightly, they have subsequently come under significant pressure

·         T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather occurs in much of the central/southern Plains through Sunday.  Thunderstorms shift southward next week (June 22-28), with 1.00”-2.00” rain forecast for the same region

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 7 to 15 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

ENERGY

·         Mostly firm: CLN15, +$0.67, $60.59; EBQ, +0.85; EBQ-CLQ, +3.69, +$.15, RBN, +$.00878; NGN, -$.042; HON, +$.0165

·         A steady to slightly weaker tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago and Tampa unchanged; New York down 1; Gulf Coast eased 1 ½; Dallas off 1; and LA was ½ lower at $1.60 ½ per gallon

·         RINs showed decent strength with 2013, 2014 and 2015 each gaining 2 5/8.  All were quoted at 47-50

·         The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread narrowed $.0180 to a still fairly wide $.6275/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                      

·&n​bsp;        On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were up 93-cents to $250.40 and $2.74 compared to a week ago

·         Daily cattle slaughter for Wednesday was estimated at 96,000 compared to 91,000 last week and 116,000 last year

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 31-cents and at $84.60, is down $1.62 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.45 to $80.57.  July futures were up $0.85 at $78.00 but are $2.57 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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