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Market Trend Corn, CN Down 1, Soybeans, SN down 3, WN, Down 2 to 3

June 19, 2015 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CN Down 1 ½; Soybeans, SN down 3; WN, Down 2 -3; KWN, Down ¼    

·         China bubble?  Shanghai drops 6.4%--possible curbs on margin trading, too many IPOs—largest weekly decline in 7 years.  However, Nikkei rises .92% and the Hang Seng, up .25%.   Europe higher on U.S. coat-tails:  CAC 40, +1.31%; DAX, +1.11%; FTSE, +.48%--leaders to meet Monday WRT Greece.  U.S. pre-markets are positive:  DOW futures, +23; S&P, +2; NAS, +5.50.  Externals:  Energies, mostly lower with July WTI off 79 cents; gold , down $1.80 at $1,199.70 and the $ Index, up 1/3rd of a point at 94.575

·         T-storm Weather: The remnant of Tropical Storm Bill produces heavy rain in the southeast Corn Belt and northern Delta – near or just north of the Ohio River.  Separately, a large area of heat races from the desert Southwest and expands through the end of next week, resulting in a one-week heat wave across the southwest half of the central U.S.  Areas of thunderstorms form along the edge of heat, resulting in widespread rainfall of 1.25" to 2.75" from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt (excluding rain from Bill) over the next 7-10 days

·         July Corn Dn $.0150 at $3.5650; Sep Down $.0175 at $3.6175.  The funds sold 2 K on Thursday

·         July SB Down $.03at $9.7475; Aug Down $.02 at $9.5850.  The funds:  bought 5 K SB; 4 K SBM and sold 6 K SBO

·         July Wheat Down $.0275 at $4.8525;  Sep Down $.0250 at $4.9075.  The funds sold 2 K on Thursday    

CORN/SORGHUM                                ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;       

·        &n​bsp;ATI Research: U.S. old-crop corn export sales were 24.7 mbu, which were up 27% from the previous week and 3% from the prior 4-wek average

·         Year-to-date U.S. sorghum export sales: 329.5 mbu (94.1% of USDA est).  Outstanding sales: 60 mbu vs. 50 last year

·         Crop consultant notes that harvesting of the Argentina corn crop remains very slow at just 41% complete

·         T-storm Weather: A cooler pattern develops for at least several days by (June 27-28).  Thunderstorms shift further to the south into the central / southern Plains and Delta for a few days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. old-crop soybean export sales were 4.9 mbu, which were down 19% from the previous week and 26% from the prior 4-week average

·         Crop consultant: Heightened concern U.S. farmers may be unable to planted all intended soybeans due to wet fields

·         November 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.42 ¼ Thurs.; one year ago, November 2014 futures settled at $12.27 ¼

·         ATI Research: U.S. all wheat export sales for 15/16 were 11.6 mbu compared to 13.7 last year and 15.9 two years ago

·         T-storm Weather: Warmer, drier weather occurs across the southwest half of the central U.S. from June 20-27

ENERGY

·         Mostly lower: CLN15, -$0.79, $59.66; EBQ, -0.87; EBQ-CLQ, +3.35, -$.08, RBN, -$.0285; NGN, +$.004; HON, -$.0298

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago down ¾; New York up ½; Gulf gained 1 ½; Tampa was steady; Dallas eased ½; and LA was 1 lower at $1.59 ½ per gallon

·         Weaker trend in RINs with 2013, 2014 and 2015 all declining 1 ¾.  All were quoted at 46-47 ½

·         The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread was back out nearly 2 cents to $.6471 on rising inventory levels

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nbs​p;                        ​;  

·   &nbs​p;     Choice boxed beef values gained 43-cents on Thursday to $250.83 and are up $3.64 vs. last week

·         Trade estimates for today’s Cattle On Feed: On feed, 100.9% of 2014; Placed in May, 91.4%; Marketed in May, 91.6%

·         On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.49 lower and at $83.11, is down $2.79 vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.46 to $80.11.  July futures were up $0.025 at $78.025 but are $2.085 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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