HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CN Down ½; Soybeans, SN Down $.01; WN, Down $.0150; KWN, Up $.01
· “Lack-Luster” is the adjective of the morning—more hand-wringing over Greece and EU traders tread water ahead of today’s ECB meeting. U.S. markets are awaiting ADP payroll data for May (+200 K expected) and the ISM’s non-mfg report which is expected to fall to 57 from 57.8 in April. Asia: Nikkei, -.34%; Shanghai, -.01%; HSI (Hang Seng), +.69%. Europe is actually higher: DAX, +.55%; CAC 40, +.42%; FTSE, +.07%. U.S. Pre-markets: DOW futures, up 39; NAS, +14.3; S&P, +5. Externals: the $ Index is up .417 @ 96.67; gold is $6.90 weaker @ $1,187.20 and energies are mostly lower with CLN off $1.28
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms occur from Iowa-Nebraska and points north intoFriday, then steadily shift eastward and southward with time – especially next week as coolness envelops the Corn Belt. The end result is that near-average rainfall is probable across a large area over the next 10 days, though higher amounts of 1.00" to 3.00" are probable in Iowa and Nebraska beginning today. We put odds at 30% for a thunderstorm cluster to dive southward from Nebraska at some point within Thursday-Monday with highest rain chances in northern Kansas and lowest chances in northern Texas
· July Corn Down $.0050 at $3.5850; Sep Down $.0050 at $3.6475. Fund buying totaled 8 Kon Tuesday
· July SB Down $.01 at $9.3975; Aug Down $.0050 at $9.27. Funds: Bought 7 K SB; 6 K SBM and sold 2 K SBO
· July Wheat Down $.0150 at $5.11; Sep Down $.0175 at $5.1550. The funds bought 8 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM       ; ;
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports expected at 38-41 mbu/week with sorghum at 4 million (vs. 2.7 in 2014)
· T-storm Weather: Beyond Sunday (June 7), the main storm track will have been shifted further to the south, thereby causing seasonably-scattered thunderstorms to affect the southwest half of the central U.S. over June 8-12
· ATI Research: U.S. corn emergence for week ending June 7 was approx. 90% last year; 5-year avg. is also approx. 90%
· Ethanol margins: $0.47 per gallon--down vs. $0.59 last week and below $0.99 last year. EIA report at 10:00 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: New-crop U.S. soybean export sales lag; total of 167 mbu is slightly less than 50% of same date last year
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean planting progress for week end June 7 approx. 86% last year; 5-year avg. is approx. 81%
· Private crop consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate increased 1.0 MMT to 60.0 vs. the USDA at 58.5
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat crop model up 5 mbu to 526 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Total of 63% of U.S. HRW wheat received at least 60 days’ worth of rain over the last 30 days
ENERGY
· Lower: CLN15, -$1.28 at $59.98; EBN, -$1.43; EBN-CLN, +4.09, -$.14, RBN, -$.0436; NGN, +$.010; HON, -$.0442
· EIA estimates: crude, -1.6 (API: +1.8); Gasoline, +0.1 (+1.6); Distillates, +1.2 (NA)
· A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago gained 1 ½; New York added 2 ½; Gulf up 1; Dallas climbed 2 ¼; Tampa increased 2 ¾; and LA was 2 higher at $1.66 per gallon
· RINs continued to slide: 2013’s off 4 ¾ to 37-46; 2014’s eased 5 to 37-46; and 2015’s down 5 ¾ to 36-45
· The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread retreated 4+ cents, closing at $.4972/gallon yesterday—possible export demand
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values declined $2.69 on Tuesday and are the lowest since March 27
· Cattle slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 114,000 head compared to 115,000 last week and 119,00 a year ago
· On Tuesday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout decreased 16-cents but at $86.08, is up 27-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.09 higher at $82.15. June futures down $0.175 at $84.475 & are $2.325 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather