HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CK Up 2-3; Soybeans, SK Up 5; Wheat, Up 3
· Europe’s better than expected mfg #’s lifted markets into positive territory: FTSE, +1.01%; DAX, +1.02% & CAC 40, +1.37%. China’s March PMI rose .2 points in March (expansion) while Japan’s index is less optimistic: Nikkei falls .90%; the Hang Seng moved up .73% and Shanghai finished 1.66% higher on hopes of more expansionary policies from the Central government. U.S. pre-markets are mixed: DOW futures, +3; S&P, -1.75 and the NAS, flat. $ Index, steady; energy, mixed; gold, -$.10
· T-storm Weather: Despite coolness within Thursday-Saturday, temperatures average warmer to much-warmer than usual across wheat areas of the central / southern Plains and Delta over the next 10-14 days. Several systems ride the edge of warmth through the period to bring widespread rainfall to the Corn Belt and Delta; wettest in corn areas of the southeast Corn Belt and / or northern Delta beginning Thursday-Friday. Although some rain also occurs in HRW wheat areas of the Plains tonight and Thursday night-Friday, much more will likely be needed given that Kansas unofficially experienced its #10 driest March since 1895
· May Corn Up $.0250 at $3.78 ½; July Up $.0225 at $3.8650. Stocks/acreage data encourage Funds to sell 20 K
· May SB Up $.05 at $9.7825; July Up $.0525 at $9.83. The Funds bought 2 K SB; 3 K SBM and were again even SBO
· May Wheat Up $.0275 at $5.1450; July Up $.03 at $5.17. The Funds sold 6 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
· ATI Research: March 1 corn stocks of 7.745 bbu were well above the average trade estimate of 7.609 bbu. This suggests that the USDA may be at least 100 mbu too high with its current annual feed/residual forecast of 5.300 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. corn plantings of 89.2 million acres were above the average trade estimate of 88.9. Using the USDA’s 166.8 bpa trend line yield assumption and normal abandonment would suggest production of 13.628 bbu
· Updated April NWS forecast: Above normal precip for Indiana, Ohio, the southeast half of Illinois & southern Michigan
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: March 1 soybean stocks, 1.334 bbu--14 mbu below trade avg.; no major change in 14/15 carryout likely
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean plantings of 84.6 million acres were below the average trade estimate of 86.0. Using the USDA’s 46.0 bpa trend line yield assumption and normal abandonment would suggest production of 3.850 bbu
· ATI Research: March 1 all wheat stocks of 1.124 bbu were below the average trade estimate of 1.141. This suggests that the USDA may be at 10-20 mbu too low with its current annual feed/residual forecast of 150 million
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat plantings of 55.4 million acres were below the average trade estimate of 55.6. Using the USDA’s 45.2 bpa trend line yield assumption and normal abandonment would suggest production of 2.120 bbu
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLK15, -$0.33 at $47.27; EBK, +$0.38 to $55.19; EBK-CLK, +7.95, RBK, +.00650; NGK, +$.015; HOK, -$.0038
· EIA estimates: crude, +4.6 (API: +5.2); Gasoline, -0.9 (-4.1); Distillates, -0.3 (+0.018)
· A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago and Tampa eased 2 ½; New York and Dallas off 2; Gulf down 1 ¾; and LA was 3 ¼ lower at $1.64 ½ per gallon
· RINs were lower: 2013’s down 1 to 68-69; 2014’s off ½ to 69 ½-70 ½; and 2015’s eased 5/8 to 68 ¼-69
· The May RBOB/April Ethanol spread gained 2+ cents to settle at $.2930 on cheaper corn prices
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values gained $2.43 on Tuesday and are $7.30 higher vs. a week ago
· Over the past 7 trading days, choice boxed beef cutout values have increased a total of $9.62
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up 35-cents on Tuesday but is $2.54 lower compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.26 at $59.70. April futures gained $1.125 to $62.425 & are $2.725 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather