Market Trend Corn, CK Up 1, Soybeans, SK Up 1, Wheat, WK Down 1
April 8, 2015 07:10 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CK Up ¼; Soybeans, SK Up ¼; Wheat, WK Down ½
· Not unexpectedly, the BOJ is continuing its easy money lending policy; Royal Dutch Shell agrees to purchase the BG Group for $69.7 billion in an effort to gain scale economies and efficiencies. Asia moves higher: Nikkei, +.76%; Shanghai, +.86% and the Hang Seng, +3.80%. Europe is mostly lower: FTSE, +.55% with the DAX off .48% and the CAC 40, -.11%. The Fed minutes & the start of earnings season highlight today’s Wall Street Focus—futures are mixed with the DOW, +6; NAS, -1.50; S&P, +.50. A 12 mb API oil build has energies weaker; May gold is up $.40; the Sep $ Index is off .42 at 98.075.
· T-storm Weather: Numerous large systems attempt to move across the central U.S. over the next 10-14 days. Each system pulls tropical humidity into the Corn Belt and Delta, and although it is possible for a system this weekend or next week to pull humidity into the Plains, it is most probable for dry winds from the desert Southwest to keep humidity low. The end result is that multiple thunderstorm clusters focus on the Corn Belt and Delta through the period. Some rain occurs in HRW wheat areas of the central / southern Plains, but not throughThursday, and most likely in eastern areas within Saturday-Tuesday
· May Corn Up $.0025 at $3.8325; July Up $.0025 at $3.9125. The Funds sold an estimated 4 K Tuesday
· May SB Up $.0025 at $9.7125; July Up $.0025 at $9.7650. The Funds sold 5 K SB, 4 K SBM and 4 K SBO
· May Wheat Down $.0050 at $5.2550; July Down $.0050 at $5.2450. Fund activity totaled 3 K in sales
CORN/SORGHUM ;      
·  USDA WASDE out April 9: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn end stocks is 1.851 bbu (range: 1.774-1.999) v. 1.777 in March
· ATI Research: Near-term exports—corn, 35-45 mbu per week; sorghum, 5-7 mbu per week
· Private crop consultant: Weather has been advantageous so far for normal development of second-crop corn in Brazil
· Ethanol margins: $0.47 per gallon vs. $0.28 last week but well below $1.65 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: 1.00”-2.00” rain for Corn Belt/Delta through Thurs-Fri improves soil moisture, slows corn planting
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE out April 9: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean end stocks is 371 mbu (range: 339-391) vs. 385 in March
· ATI Research: Expect near-term U.S. soybean exports to continue to average 15-20 mbu per week
· Private crop consultant: Soybean yields in Argentina continue to be outstanding; production est. up 1.0 MMT to 58.0
· USDA WASDE out April 9: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat ending stocks is 690 mbu vs. 691 in March
· T-storm Weather: Significant rain misses driest U.S. HRW wheat through at least Friday (April 10)
· ATI Research: 2015 initial U.S. winter wheat production estimates (in mbu): HRW, 897; SRW, 392; and White, 193
ENERGY
· Lower: CLK15, -$1.21 at $52.77; EBK, -$0.86 to $58.24; EBK-CLK, +5.49, RBK, -$.0460; NGK, -$.0105; HOK, -$.0233
· EIA estimates: crude, +3.4 (API: +12.2); Gasoline, -1.3 (+2.7); Distillates, +0.9 (-0.3)
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Tuesday in a narrow range: Chicago down 3/8; New York, Gulf and Tampa steady; Dallas eased 1; but LA was 1 higher at $1.74 ½ per gallon
· RINs steady to higher: 2013’s unchanged at 68-69; 2014’s up ¼ at 69 ½-71 ½; and 2015’s gained 1/8 to 68-68 ½
· The May RBOB/May Ethanol spread widened nearly $.04 Tuesday to $.2519/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values gained 50-cents on Tuesday and are $2.85 higher vs. a week ago
· April 2015 live cattle futures closed at $162.725 on Tuesday compared to $154.75 four weeks ago
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 27-cents higher on Tuesday but is 3-cents lower vs. last week
·  CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.16 at $59.80. April futures $0.675 lower at $62.575 but are $2.775 above the index
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