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Market Trend Corn, CK Up 1, Soybeans, SK Down 1, Wheat, WK Down 1

March 25, 2015 07:13 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Up ¾; Soybeans, SK Down ½;  Wheat, WK Down  ¼

·         China’s slowing economic growth rate and hand-wringing over the prospects of higher U.S. interest rates within our lifetime have markets in a holding pattern. 2 out of 3 Asian exchanges finished higher:  Nikkei, +.17%; Shanghai, -.79%; Hang Seng, +.53%.  Mid-day in Europe finds all 3 in the red:  DAX, -.39%; FTSE, -.03% and CAC 40, -.63%.  U.S. futures are marginally positive:  DOW, +2; NAS, +4.8 & S&P 500, +1.  The energy complex is mixed; April gold is up $.60 at $1,192 and the $ Index is 1/3 of point lower at 97.7

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure suppresses rain and keeps HRW wheat areas warm to very warm the next 10-14 days.  More rain would be ideal as 30-day and 60-day dryness continues to increase and parallel last year's dry spring.  Rain chances are higher further to the east, especially through today and again next week, which should help to stabilize the coverage of agricultural drought that is sharply higher than at the same point over the last three years for U.S. corn.  Heaviest rain occurs in wettest corn and SRW wheat areas of southeast Corn Belt, especially from 1.00"-2.00" tonight in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

·         May Corn Up $.0075 at $3.94; July Up $.01 at $4.0225. The funds bought 5 K on Tuesday

·         May SB Down $.0050 at $9.8125; July Down $.0125 at $9.88525.  The Funds sold 2 K SB; 1 K SBM and 2 K SBO yesterday

·         May Wheat Down $.0025 at $5.2325; July Down $.0025 at $5.28.  Fund selling was estimated at 3 K 

CORN/SORGHUM                                   ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;    

·         ATI Research: We expect near-term U.S. corn exports to average 25-35 mbu per week

·         ATI Research: Near-term U.S. sorghum exports are expected to average 5-7 mbu per week

·         Private crop consultant: Brazil farmers appear to have planted some last minute double-crop corn due to the weaker Brazilian currency

·         Ethanol margins: $0.32 per gallon vs. $0.31 last week but sharply below $2.13 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Expect near-term U.S. soybean exports to average 15-20 mbu per week

·         Private crop consultant: Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil (top producing state) is approaching 90% complete

·         T-storm Weather: Rain remains limited for driest second-crop Argentina soybeans, but coolness prevails for 7-10 days

·         ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to average 15-20 mbu per week over the next month

·         USDA wheat crop ratings: Kansas, 41% Good/Excellent (41% last week); Oklahoma, 44% (40%); and Texas, 55% (51%)

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed: CLK15, -$.13 at $47.38; RBK, +.0095; NGK, -$.035 and HOK, +$.0016

·         EIA estimates:  crude, +5.6 (API: +4.8); Gasoline, -1.7 (-2.6); Distillates, -0.5 (-0.6)

·         Cash ethanol markets were narrowly mixed on Tuesday: Chicago, Tampa and Dallas were all steady; Gulf gained ½; New York eased ½; and LA was a penny firmer at $1.67 ½ per gallon

·         RINs steady to firmer: 2013’s unchanged at 67-67 ½; 2014’s up ¼ to 68 ½-69 ½; and 2015’s added ½ to 67 ¾-68

·         The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread lost about a ¼ cent to $.2887 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            ​                        &​nbsp;      <​/wbr>

·         Choice boxed beef values were $1.04 higher on Tuesday but are 21-cents lower compared to last week 

·         April live cattle futures closed up $0.65 at $162.00 on Tues.—the highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 8

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 8-cents firmer on Tuesday and is up 11-cents vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.48 lower at $61.81.  April futures down $0.65 at $58.60 and is $3.21 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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