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Market Trend Corn, CK Steady, Soybeans, SK Up 1, Wheat, WK, Up

May 8, 2015 07:06 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Steady; Soybeans, SK Up $.01; Wheat, WK, Up $.0225; KWK, Down $.0250

·         Asia closed the week on a positive note:  the Nikkei gained .45%; Shanghai rebounded 2.30% and the Hang Seng, +1.05%.  Mid-day trading in Europe has the FTSE bolstered by a Conservative Party election victory, up 1.72%. Markets on the Continent are also higher:  DAX, +.55% & CAC 40, +.73%.  U.S. futures are cautiously higher--traders expect today’s jobs report to show a bounce back from a weak 126 K # in March to 208 K in April:  DOW, +37; NAS, +12 ½; S&P, +3 ¾. $ Index, +.198; Gold, +$2.80; oil, +$.26

·         T-storm Weather: Multiples waves of thunderstorms affect most of the central U.S. throughMonday, especially across the Plains and western half of the Corn Belt.  Three to five days of drying follow, but seasonably-scattered thunderstorms gradually return with time – most likely across the Plains within May 15-17 and elsewhere shortly thereafter.  Temperatures remain mild across the southern Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta through Monday, but turn much cooler across the northern Plains through the weekend. Coolness ultimately envelops northern areas for several days, likely inducing light frosts in northern Plains & northwest Corn Belt

·         May Corn Steady at $3.5775; July Steady at $3.6150. Dely: Corn, 247; ETOH, 0.   Funds sell 8 K

·         May SB Up $.01 at $9.825075; July Down $.0125 at $9.7375.   Dely: SB, 1; SBO, 274.  The sold 5 K SB; even on SBM; sold 4 K SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.0225 at $4.68; Sep Up $.02 at $4.7475.   Dely: HRW, 9; SRW, 48.   The funds sold 6 K on Thursday

CORN/SORGHUM                    &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                   <​/p>

·         ATI Research: Since 2009, the increase in U.S. corn planting from May 3-10 has ranged from a low of 13% in 2013 to a high of 27% in 2014.  If widespread rain this weekend is realized, 2015 progress may be near the middle of that range

·         Year-to-date 14/15 export sales commitments of sorghum are 317.7 mbu, or 90.8% of the latest USDA forecast for 350 million.  Outstanding sales: 76 mbu vs. 50 last year 

·         U.S. corn export sales for 14/15 of 33.1 mbu up 1% vs. last week, 15% above 4-week avg. & 2ndhighest since Feb. 12

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of at least near-average rainfall is probable for the Corn Belt May 14-20

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Since 2009, the increase in U.S. soybean planting from May 3-10 has ranged from a low of 4% in 2013 to a high of 18% in 2014.  If widespread rain this weekend is realized, 2015 progress may be near middle of that range

·         U.S. soybean export sales for 14/15 of 12.5 mbu down 22% vs. last week but more than double the prior 4-week avg.

·         T-storm Weather: High pressure keeps Argentina dry over the next 7-10 days allowing soybean harvesting to continue

·         Net export sales reductions of 5.4 mbu for 14/15 wheat as quantities switched to 15/16 for 2ndconsecutive week

·         T-storm Weather: Multiple waves of thunderstorms through early next week turn U.S. HRW wet to excessively wet

ENERGY

·         Slightly higher:   CLM15, +$0.26; EBM, -$0.01; EBM-CLM, +6.42, RBM, +$.0012; NGM, +$.014;HOM, -$.0014

·         A mixed tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago down 1 ¾; New York off 2 ½; Gulf up 2 ¼; Dallas gained ½ Tampa added 2; and LA was ½ higher at $1.84 per gallon

·         RINs were weaker: 2013’s down ¾ at 73-75; 2014’s off 1 ¼ to 74-76; and 2015’s slide 1 3/8 to 72 ½-74

·         The June RBOB/JuneEthanol spread retreated $.0343 to $.3503 yesterday; in another 2 ½ + this morning 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &nbs​p;                        ​;         

·         Choice boxed beef values increased $1.43 on Thursday and are 68-cents higher vs. last week 

·         Dressed steer weight for week ending April 25: 866 lbs vs. 872 last week, 871.5 for 4-week avg. and 841 last year

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.49 Thurs., is up $5.89 v. last week & highest since Jan. 30

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $1.40 to $75.98.  May futures 50-cents lower at $79.85 and are $3.87 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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