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Market Trend Corn, CK Down 1, Soybeans, SK Up 4, Wheat, WK

April 28, 2015 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Down $.0050; Soybeans, SK Up $.0350; Wheat, WK Down $.0175; KWK Up $.0050

·         Asian markets found Shanghai closing off 1.13%; the Hang Seng was little changed, +.03% and the Nikkei posted a .38% gain.  Mid-day in Europe is showing negative numbers as traders eye the up-coming Federal Reserve meeting:  CAC 40, -1.15%; DAX, -.82% and the FTSE, -.83%.  U.S. pre-markets point to a flat to negative start:  DOW futures, down 37; S&P 500, 4 ¾ lower and the NAS, -2 ½. Externals:  $ Index, ¼ weaker at 97.115; energies are soft and gold is $1.80 cheaper this morning at $1,201.10

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures turn sharply warmer from west to east as upper-level high pressure expands this week, then remain seasonable to warm through at least the first half of May.  Except for rain from / near Oklahoma through the southern Delta and points east today, mainly dry weather occurs elsewhere to open a corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting window across a large area.  That said, high-topsoil moisture needs to diminish more sharply for corn planting to race forward similarly to May 3-10 of last year, which will take at least a few more days to unfold

·         May Corn Down $.0050 at $3.6025; July Down $.01 at $3.6375. The Funds began the week by selling 8 K

·         May SB Up $.0350 at $9.7650; July Up $.0325 at $9.7625.  The Funds bought 2 K SB; 1 K SBM and were even on SBO

·         May Wheat Down $.0175 at $4.6850 July Down $.01 at $4.7225.  The funds sold 6 K on Monday       

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;               

·&nb​sp;        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged compared to last week to 1.917 bbu

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged vs. last week to 22 mbu

·         USDA pegs U.S. corn planting as of April 26 at 19% vs. 17% last year and the 5-year average of 25%.  Corn emergence is 2% vs. 3% in 2014 and the avg. of 6%.  Sorghum planting: 24% vs. 26% last year and the 5-year avg. of 25%

·         T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms interrupt planting in parts of the central Plains and Corn Belt as warmth expands Saturday-Sunday.  That said, the brunt of organized rainfall holds untilSunday-Monday forward

·         Private crop consultant notes good weather continues to benefit double crop corn production prospects in Brazil

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged compared to last week at 351 mbu

·         USDA pegs U.S. soybean planting as of April 26 at 2% vs. 3% last year and the 5-year average of 4%.

·         T-storm Weather: U.S. SRW wheat would likely benefit from drying, especially in Kentucky

·         ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat crop model declines 12 mbu to 1.428 bbu; HRW, 838; SRW, 397; and White, 193

·         ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 277 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 272 mbu

ENERGY

·         Lower:CLM15, -$0.19 to $56.80; EBM, -$0.12 to $64.71; EBM-CLM, +7.85, RBM, -$.0017; NGM, -$.002; HOM, +$.0021

·         A steady to slightly weaker tone was seen in most ash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago unchanged; New York off ½; Gulf down 1; Tampa steady; Dallas added ¾; but LA was 2 lower at $1.78 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s up 1 ½ to 72 ½-73 ½; 2014’s added 2 ¼ to 74-75 ½; and 2015’s gained 5/8 to 71 ¾-72 ½

·         The June RBOB/June Ethanol spread slipped $.0039 to $.4189 per gallon yesterday 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               ​;                         ​;                   ​

·         Choice boxed beef values were 10-cents lower on Monday and are down $2.25 vs. last week

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $2.47 last week to $159.18/cwt but is up $12.84 vs. last year

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 93-cents on Monday and is up $3.20 vs. a week ago 

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.44 at $65.83.  May futures $0.325 higher at $72.375 and are $6.545 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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