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Market Trend: Corn, CK Down 1, Soybeans, SK Down 4 to 5, Wheat, WK Down 4-5

April 9, 2015 07:06 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Down ¼; Soybeans, SK Down 4-5; Wheat, WK Down 4-5 

·         European markets are on track for a record high close today, despite mixed reviews from Fed Reserve officials on the timing of that inevitable rate hike. DAX: +.50%; FTSE, +.67%; CAC 40, +.87%.  Noble Group shares fall as much as 9.3% in Singapore before some bounce-back. U.S. stocks futures are weaker:  DOW, -25; NAS, -9 and the S&P, off 4 ¼. Energy futures are decidedly firmer; the $ Index is a 1/3rd of a point higher at 98.92 and gold is down $4.30 at $1,198.70

·         T-storm Weather: Several large systems attempt to move across the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days as a seasonable to mild pattern dominates.  Except for the system that passes through today and focuses strong and severe thunderstorms to the east of most HRW wheat, the impact of each system is difficult to assess.  It is most probable for the next system that passes within Sunday-Tuesday to bring some rain to the eastern third to half of HRW wheat, then focus heavier rain further to the east in SRW wheat (and corn) areas where tropical humidity is most likely to exist    

·         May Corn Down $.0025 at $3.79; July Down $.0025 at $3.87. The Funds were sellers for the 3rd straight day—7 K

·         May SB Down $.0450 at $9.67; July Down $.0475 at $9.7175.  The Funds were even:  SB, SBM and SBO

·         May Wheat Down $.04 at $5.2225; July Down $.0350 at $5.2025.  The funds endedWednesday trading even    

CORN/SORGHUM                                      &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;

·         USDA WASDE out at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn end stocks is 1.851 bbu vs. 1.777 in March.  Avg. guess for Brazil corn prod is 75.0 MMT (75.0 in March); avg. guess for Argentina corn production is 23.7 MMT (23.5 March)

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 14 to 18 mbu old-crop corn, 0-4 new-crop

·         Ethanol grind: 936,000 barrels per day for week end April 3--down 16 thou vs. last week but up 4.5% vs. a year ago

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread rainfall of 1.67”-3.33” affects the Corn Belt and Delta over the next two weeks

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA WASDE out at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean end stocks is 371 mbu vs. 385 in March.  Avg. guess for Brazil soybean crop is 94.4 MMT (94.5 in March); avg. guess for Argentina soybean crop is 56.8 MMT (56.0 March)

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans---2 to 6 mbu old-crop, 6-11 new-crop; soymeal-- 100-200 old-crop, 50-150 new-crop; soyoil--2-20 old-crop, zero new-crop

·         USDA WASDE out at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat ending stocks is 690 mbu vs. 691 in March

·         T-storm Weather: Low chances for significant rainfall exist for driest U.S. HRW wheat, but not starting until Sunday

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 2-6 mbu for old-crop all wheat, 4-7 new-crop  

ENERGY

·         Firm:  CLK15​, +$1.37 at $51.79; EBK, +$1.81 to $57.35; EBK-CLK, +5.55, RBK, +$.0367; NGK, +$.024; HOK, +$.0407

·         A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off 2 1/8; New York down 2 ½; Gulf eased 3; Tampa and Dallas slipped 1; but LA was 2 lower at $1.72 ½ per gallon

·         Unchanged to higher RINs: 2013’s up ½ at 68-70; 2014’s added ¼ at 70-71; and 2015’s steady at 68-68 ½

·         A reduction in stocks/expected down-time trimmed the May RBOB/May Ethanol spread 10 ¼+ cents to $.1492/gal

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;             

·         On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were $2.16 higher and are up $3.72 compared to last week

·         Choice boxed beef cutout values are trading at the highest level since Jan. 19 and have increased $21.46 since Feb. 13

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 39-cents on Wednesday but is up $1.08 from a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.21 at $60.01.  April futures $0.275 lower at $62.30 but are $2.29 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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