HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, CK, Down ½-3/4; Soybeans, SK Down 3- 3 ¼; Wheat, WK Down 4 ¾ -5
· NY Fed Prez says rate hikes will be “shallow”; investors take comfort and Asia closes higher overnight: Nikkei, +1.25%; Shanghai, +2.51% and the Hang Seng, +.77%. Europe follows the same path with mid-day trading finding the FTSE, +1.40%; CAC 40, +1.27% and the DAX, +.95%. U.S. futures look mixed: DOW, +2; S&P, -1/4 and the NAS, +3.2 with the market likely treading water until Wednesday’s release of the Fed minutes can be scrutinized for interest rate subtleties. Energy future are mostly lower; the $ Index is up nearly a point at 98.265 and gold is $9.70 in the red at $1,208.90/oz
· T-storm Weather: Temperatures average much warmer than usual across the southern third of the central U.S. over the next two weeks or longer. Waves of energy ride the edge of warmth, triggering numerous thunderstorm clusters in the Corn Belt and Delta where humidity will be highest. Thunderstorm chances will always exist in HRW wheat areas of the Plains, but chances will always be the highest along the northern and eastern fringes of production given: 1) low-level winds are most likely to originate from the desert southwest, 2) the foreseeable weather pattern this week, and 3) recent history
· May Corn Down $.0075 at $3.8425; July Down $.0050 at $3.9250. Fund selling was estimated at 3 K on Mondat
· May SB Down $.0325 at $9.7525; July Down $.0325 at $9.8025. The Funds sold 4 K SB, 4 K SBM and bought 3 K SBO
· May Wheat Down $.0475 at $5.23; July Down$.0450 at $5.2325. Fund sales were pegged at 5 K to begin the week
CORN/SORGHUM ;      
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout up 110 mbu compared to last week to 1.860 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged at 27 mbu
· U.S. corn planting in the South continues to run behind normal levels: Texas, 37% (vs. 50% for the 5-year average.); Mississippi, 34% vs. (57%); Louisiana, 67% (93%); Arkansas, 27% (43%)
· T-storm Weather: Rain amounts of 1.00” to 3.00” affect much of the U.S. Corn Belt and Delta through Friday-Saturday, likely slowing and stopping corn planting as the week progresses
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 35 mbu vs. last week to 344 mbu
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports expected to average 15-20 mbu per week
· T-storm Weather: Driest second-crop soybeans in Argentina remain unseasonably dry for at least five to seven more days while temperatures remain cool
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 278 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 307 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Given 76% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier than usual the last 30 days (slightly higher than in 2013 & 2014), & that the intensity of 30-day will increase sharply over the next two days, a direct rain strike is likely needed
ENERGY
· Lower: CLK15, -$0.58 at $51.56; EBK, -$0.30 to $57.81; EBK-CLK, +6.26, RBK, -$.0069; NGK, +$.051; HOK, -$.0080
· Compared to last Thursday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago and Tampa up 3; New York gained 4 ½; Gulf climbed 1 ¾; Dallas added 2; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.73 ½ per gallon
· RINs were mixed: 2013’s up ¼ at 68-69; 2014’s down ½ at 69 ½-70 ½; and 2015’s lost 1/8 to 67 ¾-68 ½
· The May RBOB/May Ethanol spread gained $.0142 on Monday to $.2125; up $.02+ in early trade
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; ;
· Choice boxed beef values were 91-cents higher on Monday and are up $4.78 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price increased $2.00 last week to $167.57/cwt and is up $17.86 vs. last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was down 39-cents on Monday but is 5-cents higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.06 higher at $59.64. April futures up $0.075 to $63.25 and are $3.61 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather