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Market Trend Corn, CH, Down 1, CK, Up 1, Soybeans, Down 3 to 6, Wheat,

March 13, 2015 07:04 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CH, Down ¾; CK, Up 1; Soybeans, Down 3-6;  Wheat, WH, NA; WK, Up 4-5

·         Despite lower fuel expenses, U.S. consumer cut back their retail spending in both Jan and Feb, encouraging many to argue the Fed will be in no hurry to raise interest rates.  Key Asian markets were apparently higher as a result:  the Nikkei gained 1.4% (tops 19,000; a 15-year high); Shanghai, +.7% and the Hang Seng, +.11%.   Europe began the day on a positive note but mid-day trading finds the FTSE, CAC 40 and DAX all down, 13-.16%.  U.S. futures point to a mixed opening:  DOW, -2.22; S&P, +2; NAS, +6.2.  The $ Index is up .159 at 99.57; gold is $3 higher on the March at $1,155 and energy futures are all weaker.

·         Scattered showers are possible for extreme north to northeast areas of Mato Grosso, Brazil today-Saturday.  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of the state, which may support final planting of second crop corn and soybean harvest progress.  Temperatures throughout the state are projected to average near to above normal.  Further south, mostly dry conditions are forecast for Parana and Rio Grande do Sul through tomorrow with near to above normal temperatures south, near to below normal north.  A few showers are possible for Central Argentina today with above to well above normal temperatures

·         Mar Corn Down $.0075 at $3.8150; May Up $.0100 at $3.8950.   Dely:  349.  The funds sold 3 K on Thursday

·         Mar SB Down $.0575 at $9.8075; May Down $.04 at $9.8650. Dely: 200 SB, 32 SBO.  Funds sold 1 K SB; 2 K SBM & 2 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat NA; May Up $.0450 at $5.1175.  Dely: 86 HRW, 0 SRW.  Funds bought 6 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM                                   ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;    

·         U.S. corn export sales of 16.5 mbu for the week end March 5 were down 50% vs. last week 52% below the 4-week avg.  This week’s total also the lowest since the week end Jan. 1.  Outstanding sales are 630 mbu vs. 747 mil last year

·         Year-to-date total export sales commitments of sorghum are 308 mbu, or almost 103% of the USDA forecast.  Barring some cancellations and/or rolling of sales to new-crop, the UISDA projection appears to be too low at this point

·         USDA March Feed Outlook: Upward revision of 14 mbu (0.6%) in Sept-Nov corn feed residual estimate vs. February

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         U.S. soybean export sales of 6.2 mbu for week end March 5 were down 66% vs. last week and 70% below the 4-week avg.  This week’s total also the lowest since the week end Jan. 15.  Outstanding sales are 213 mbu vs. 229 mil last year

·         ATI Research: Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections have been averaging 33 mbu the past month, which is 12 million less than a year ago.  Look for near-term U.S. soybean exports to average 15-25 mbu per week

·         Outstanding U.S. wheat export sales as of March.5: 184 mbu vs. 207 mil last year

·         USDA pegging Texas 2015 winter wheat crop conditions at 50% Good/Excellent compared to 44% one month ago

ENERGY

·         Futures are weaker: CLJ15, -$0.36 at $68.70; RBJ, -0.169; NGJ, -$.030 and HOJ, -$.0166

·         Cash ethanol markets were slightly higher on Thursday: Chicago up 5/8; Gulf added ¾; New York gained 1; Tampa and Dallas tacked on 1 ½; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.71 per gallon

·         Weaker trend in RINs: 2013’s down 2 at 67-68; 2014’s eased 1 ¼ to 68-70 ½; and 2015’s were 1 ¾ lower at 67-69

·         The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread lost 2+ cents, to $.3135 yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp; 

·    &n​bsp;    Choice boxed beef values were $1.49 lower on Thursday and are down $3.22 compared to last week

·         Dressed steer weights for week end Feb. 28: 875 lbs—down 5 pounds v. last week but 12 pounds heavier vs. last year

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 31-cents higher on Thursday and is up 63-cents vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.43 lower at $66.37.  April futures down $1.825 at $62.30 and is $4.07 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN Ag Weather

 

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