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Market Trend Corn, 5 to 6 Higher, Soybeans, 7 to 8 Higher, Wheat, 14 to 15 Higher.

December 18, 2014 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 5-6 Higher; Soybeans, 7-8 Higher; Wheat, 14-15 Higher.  French wheat, Up 21; Corn, 7 Higher

·         Yellen expects little fall-out from the plunge in oil prices/Russia’s economic woes—U.S. Fed to maintain “patient” approach in raising U.S. interest rates—1st U.S. then Asia markets likes what they it hear.  Latter finds Nikkei up 2.32%; Hang Seng gains 1.09% but Shanghai slips .10%. Europe also up sharply at mid-day:  FTSE, +.99%; DAX, +2.01% and CAC 40, +2.42%.  Optimism continues with Dow futures showing a 179 point gain; NAS, +52 and S&P500, +21.50.  Externals:  gold, +$13 @ $1,207.30; energy futures are on the upswing and the $ Index is off .071 at 89.255.  Vlad speaks; ruble falls nearly 5% to 63.86/$ US

·         T-storm Weather: In South America, a cool front parade continues to trigger thunderstorms through next week in Brazil and Paraguay – especially within Sunday-Tuesday.  Widespread coverage of 2.00” – 5.00” amounts occur to keep (or turn) corn and soybeans moist; 1.75” – 2.50” is approximately average for the next 10 days.  A few thunderstorms also occur in Argentina, but amounts average lower than usual through the period, thereby aiding planting and harvesting.  Temperatures in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay average cooler to much cooler than usual through 10 days

·         Mar Corn Up $.0525 at $4.1350; May Up $.0550 at $4.22.  Funds bought 5 K at mid-week

·         Jan SB Up $.0775 at $10.3475; March Up $.0825 at $10.4350.  Funds: bought 4 K SB; 3 K SBM; even SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.1475 at $6.6325; May Up $.1250 at $6.6325.  The funds bought 8 K yesterday

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM                 &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                     

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 26 to 33 mbu corn 

·         Ethanol grind: 990,000 barrels per day for week end Dec. 12 (record); up 2 thou vs. last week & 6.7% higher v. 2013 

·         T-storm Weather: Conditions for corn development across southern Brazil & Paraguay improve the next 7-10 days

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $4.08 ¼ on Wed.—one year ago, the March 2014 corn contract settled at $4.26 ¾

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects soybeans, 22 to 29 mbu; soymeal, 0-100; soyoil, 5-20

·         T-storm Weather: Key soybean areas of Argentina average drier than usual the next 10 days.  Temperatures warm into the weekend as maximums gradually return to the 90s but turn sharply cooler for the first few days of next week

·         January 2015 soybean futures closed at $10.27 Wed.—one year ago, January 2014 soybean contract settled $13.46 ½

·         CBT March 2015 wheat futures traded $6.50 ¾ on Wednesday, the highest price for the contract since June 11, 2014, with buying linked to news that Russia has tightened export rules

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for all wheat

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher: QCLF14, +$1.19 at $57.66; QRBF, +$0.0391; QNGF, +$.038; and QHOF, +$.0277

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Wednesday: Chicago down 10 ¼; Gulf added 1; Dallas eased 4 ½; New York climbed 2 ½; Tampa slipped 7 ½; and LA was 7 lower at $1.88 per gallon

·         RINs edged up again: 2013’s added 2 at 63-65; 2014’s gained 2 ¼ to 64 ½-66; and 2015’s increased 1 ½ to 64-65

·         The inverse in the January RBOB/January ethanol spread gain $.0058 to -$.05380 on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​;                        ​        

· ​;        Choice boxed beef values declined 47-cents on Wed., are down $7.54 vs. last week & at the lowest level since Oct. 6

·         December live cattle futures traded to $155.975 on Wed.—the lowest price for the contract since Sept. 3, 2014

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased $1.35 Wed., is $4.18 below last week & at lowest level since Jan. 24, 2014

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.65 at $85.95.  February futures down $1.20 to $80.475 & are $5.475 below the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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