HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 4+ Higher; Soybeans, 7-8 Higher; Wheat, 2-3 Higher
· China’s economy grew 7.5% in QII, a modest increase over QI’s 7.4% gain and in line with expectations. While supportive, most Asian equity markets were unimpressed: Shanghai slipped .15%; the Nikkei edged .1% lower but the Hang Seng did manage a .27% gain. European responded more favorably in early activity: 1 to 1.5% increases noted for the FTSE, DAX and CAC-40 this morning. U.S. futures point to a positive opening: Dow, +52; S&P, +5 ¾ and the NAS, +18.50. Outside markets are all trading to the upside: CLQ is back over $100; gold is $2.10 higher at $1,200.20 and the $ Index is up .139 at 80.585
· T-Storm Weather: Unseasonably-cool and dry weather affects most areas through Friday-Saturday. The exception to dryness is from the southern Plains through the Delta where a series of systems dump 1.00”-3.00” of unseasonably-heavy rainfall on fringe corn and soybean areas—especially within Thursday-Saturday. A sharply warmer pattern begins this weekend and dominates next week (July 20-25). A few thunderstorms accompany the pattern (especially in northern and eastern areas), but we are not forecasting widespread rainfall because the low-level wind flow does not appear ideal for well-organized rains
· Sep Corn Up $.0425 at $3.7825; December Up $.0425 at $3.7825. Funds were sellers Tuesday, 4 K
· August SB Up $.0775 at $11.8825; Sep Up $.0875 at $11.13 The funds sold 3 K SB; 3 K SBM; bought 1 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Up $.0250 at $5.4025; December Up $.0250 at $5.6350. Fund activity was a net zero yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: A seasonably-cooler pattern most likely develops for Corn Belt the last five days of July as a wave of energy eventually pulls cooler air southward and prevents heat from dominating through the end of the month
· December 2014 corn futures made a contract low of $3.78 ¼ on Tuesday
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports to average 37mbu per week short-term, plus or minus 3 ½ million on either side
· Ethanol margins: $0.70 per gallon vs. $0.74 last week but above $0.38 a year ago. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Look for U.S. soybean exports to average 2-3mbu per week over the next month
· USDA Crop Progress report: U.S. soybean crop development still well above 2013; 41% blooming vs. 24% last year
· Private crop consultant notes U.S. soybeans continue to underperform compared to the corn crop
· Australia Bureau of Meteorology reports month-to-date rainfall is below normal across most major wheat areas
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports likely to range from 15-20mbu per week over the next month
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLQ14, +$.76 at $100.72; QRBQ, +$0.0104; QNGQ, +$.009; and QHOQ, +$.0019
· Downtrend in cash ethanol markets continued on Tuesday: Chicago off 1 ¾; New York slipped 4 ¼; Gulf eased 2; Tampa lost 1 ½; Dallas declined 2 ½; and LA was 2 ½ lower at $2.26 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -2.6 mb (-4.8); gasoline, +0.7 (-1.6); distillates, +2.0 (+1.3)
· RINs off fractionally: 2012’s eased ¼ to 47 ½-48 ½; 2013’s down ½ at 47 ½-48 ½; and 2014’s were ¾ lower to 48-48 ½
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread lost 1 ½ cents Tuesday, closing at $.7976
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values eased 61-cents yesterday and have declined $1.64 over the last three trading days
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $158 while packers bid $152. Cattle traded last week at mostly $156
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 19-cents yesterday to tie its record high of $134.44 from last Wednesday
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.58 to $133.36. August future up $0.375 to $130.725, but are $2.635 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather