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Market Trend Corn, 3 to 4 Lower, Soybeans, Mixed-old up 2 to 3, new, down

May 12, 2014 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         ½ Market Trend:  Corn, 3 to 4 Lower; Soybeans, Mixed-old up 2-3; new, down   Wheat, Down 14

·         Capital market reforms to improve transparency and market access lifted Shanghai 2.08% to start the week and the Hang Seng posted a 1.82% gain.  The Nikkei fell .35% and most other Asian markets were lower.  Europe is positive in early trading:  FTSE, +.38%; DAX, +.92% and the CAC 40, +.13%.  U.S. markets looked poised to continue their winning ways:  S&P futures, +7; the Dow, +56 and the Nasdaq, +16. Gold is worth more this morning, up $8.24; energy futures are mostly positive and the $ Index, -.065 @ 80.015

·         T-Storm Weather: Widespread rain occurs across the western two-thirds of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Plains today.  Additional rainfall affects the Delta and eastern one-third of the Corn BeltTuesday-Wednesday; 1.00”-2.00” is most likely across these areas with pockets of 3.00” plausible across the southeast half of the Corn Belt.  Five days of unseasonable coolness follow the exit of rain as maximums stay in the 50s-60s and minimums dip into the 40s; pockets of light showers accompany coolness across northern Plains/Corn Belt through Friday-Saturday.  Coolness retreats Saturday-Sundayas a sharply milder pattern begins

·         May Corn Down $.0375 at $5.0150; July Down $.0350 at $5.04.  Fund selling totaled 10 K on Friday

·         May SB Up $.0250 at $15.0350; July Up $.03 at $14.90. Funds bought another 7 K SB Fri, 6 K SBM and 1 K SBO

·         May Wheat Down $.1425 at $6.9975; July Down $.1250at $7.10.  The funds sold 5 K to close out the week

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ATI Research: USDA Crop Progress report out at 3:00 PM CDT likely to show nationwide U.S. corn planting at 55-60% complete as of Sunday compared to 26% last year and the 5-year average of 58%

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 44.1 needed; 48.8 last week.  Milo—4.0 needed; 3.4 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 863 contracts

·         Corn deliveries:   0

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean planting progress likely to show 15-20% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year avg. of 21%

  • Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 4.5 needed; 3.7 last week
  • Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions decrease 19,859 contracts

·         Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions increase 1,379 contracts

·         ATI Research: Winter wheat Good/Excellent likely to be steady to 2 points lower in USDA Crop Progress report

·         Soy complex deliveries:  65 SB; 18 SBM; 15 SBO; Wheat: 42 KC; 122 CHI

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly positive: QCLM14, +$0.49 at $100.48; QRBM, +$0.0292; QNGM, -$.034; and QHOM, +$.0232

·         Cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer to end the week on Friday: Chicago and Gulf gained 3; Dallas added a nickel; New York was unchanged; Tamps climbed 7; and LA was 8 higher at $2.37 ½ per gallon

·         RINs showed modest gains: 2012’s up ½ to 43-44; 2013’s nudged 1 higher to 44-45; and 2014’s added 1 to 42-43

·         The June RBOB/June ethanol spread lost 1 ½ cents Friday, settling at $.7350 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &nb​sp;                       

  • Choice boxed beef values fell $2.39 Friday and have declined $5.64 over the last four trading days
  • Cash cattle traded late Friday at mostly $146, steady with the week before
  • The USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 51-cents Friday and has declined 54-cents over the last two trading days
  • The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $3.34 Friday to $108.27

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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