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Market Trend Corn, 3 to 4 Lower, Soybeans, 9 to 10 Lower, Wheat, 7 Lower.

October 20, 2014 07:31 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, 3-4 Lower; Soybeans, 9-10 Lower; Wheat, 7 Lower.    Europe:  Wheat, - 5 ¼; Corn, -4 ¾             

·        &nbs​p;The Japan’s government’s decision to boost the share of domestic stocks in its pension holdings sparked the Nikkei to a near 4-% gain on Monday.  Shanghai closed .66% higher despite concerns over weakening Chinese growth and the Hang Seng gained .2%. Europe’s sluggish economic outlook weighed on markets there with the CAC 40 and FTSE trading at .80-.89% lower early-on and the DAX, off 1.5%.  U.S. futures looked poised to start higher:  Dow, +19; S&P, +2.50 and the NAS, +9.80.  Gold futures are $2.50 higher at $1,241.10; the $ Index is flat at 85.40 and energy futures are mostly lower

·         T-Storm Weather: In the U.S., significant rainfall is not immediately foreseen, thereby improving conditions for corn / soybean harvesting and winter wheat planting into the end of the month.  The Plains will much warmer than average; by 5-15 degrees across the central/southern and 10-20 degrees in the north.  Although warmth occasionally bubbles into the Corn Belt, temperatures only average near-usual because several cool fronts slide across the Great Lakes, inducing periods of cloudiness and keeping maximums nearer average (in the 50s-60s)

·         Dec Corn Down $.0350 at $3.4550; March Down $.0375 at $3.5750.   The funds sold 4 K to close out the week    

·         Nov SB Down $.0925 at $9.4250; Jan Down $.0925 at $9.5050.  Funds sold 6 K SB, 4 K SBM and 3 K SBO on Friday

·         Dec Wheat Down $.0750 at $5.0850; March Down $.0725 at $5.2075.  The funds were even inFriday’s trade  

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CORN/SORGHUM            &​nbsp;           ​;                        ​                         ​              <​/wbr>

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn harvest estimated at 30% as of Oct. 19 vs. approx. 38% last year & 5-year avg. of approx. 53%

·         Weekly corn export sales of 75.7mbu may be highest since Jan. 2008 (data missing from 2013 due to govt. shutdown)

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 33.8 needed; 36.8 last week.  Milo—4.0 needed; 5.1 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 12,097 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean harvest est. at 50% as of Oct. 19 vs. approx. 61% last year & 5-year avg. of approx. 66%

·         T-storm Weather: Only isolated thunderstorms occur in soybean areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil Mon-Wed

·         Export Inspections; Soybeans, 33.8 needed; 52.5 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 11,799 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: Conditions for U.S. HRW wheat growth & development will be ideal through the end of the month

·         ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat planting est: 78% as of Oct. 12 vs. approx. 77% last year & 5-year avg. of approx. 77%

·         Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions increase 226 contracts

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly lower:  QCLX14,+$0.03 at $84.78; QRBX,-$0.0014; QNGX, -$.044; andQHOX, -$.0101

·         Additional gains were noted in most cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago added 5 ½; Gulf gained 4 ½; Dallas was up 3 ½; New York climbed 8; Tampa was unchanged; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $1.93 per gallon

·         RINs were lower: 2013’s down ½ at 46 ¾-47 ¾; 2014’s off 3/8 at 47-47 ¾; and 2015’s were ½ weaker at 47-47 ¾

·         The November RBOB/Ethanol spread narrowed 3+ cents to $.4657 on Friday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>&​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                    

·       &​nbsp; After falling $1.57 on Friday, Choice boxed beef values firmed 24-cents Friday

·         Cash cattle traded mostly steady at $164 last week, but technical trading caused large swings in futures

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $2.95 Friday and has lost $6.17 over the last two trading days

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.89 to $108.21. December futures up $0.25 to $90.575, but are $17.635 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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