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Market Trend Corn, 3 to 4 Lower, Soybeans, 9 to 10 Lower, Wheat, 6 Lower.

November 19, 2014 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        Market Trend:   Corn, 3-4 Lower; Soybeans, 9-10 Lower; Wheat, 6 Lower.  

·        October PRC housing prices fell 2.6% with 69 of 70 cities reporting declines.  This suggests economic growth is slowing and will possibly fall short of last quarter’s 7.3% rate. Asian markets fell anywhere from .21% (Shanghai) to .66% (Hang Seng) overnight partially as a result. Morning European trade has the FTSE .14% lower but both the CAC 40 (+.13%) and the DAX (+.33%) are higher. Housing data & FMOC minutes top the list of possible U.S. market movers today.  Futures are mixed:  DOW, -9; NAS, +.80; S&P, -1.25.  Outside markets:   $ Index, ¼ point higher at 87.86; energy futures are higher; gold is barely unchanged

·        T-storm Weather: Heat breaks through today in Argentina as a cool front sweeps northward.  The front triggers thunderstorms through tonight in key corn and soybean areas; scattered 0.50" -1.00" amounts are most likely.  Mainly dry and seasonable weather follow through the weekend to further aid planting, but drying is unlikely to last as another system develops new thunderstorms around Sunday-Monday.  To the north, very warm to hot and dry weather continue through at least today across Brazil & Paraguay.  Changes follow from Thurs. forward as rain occurs; generalized 0.75" - 1.50" amounts are probable Nov. 20-23

·        Dec Corn Down $.0350 at $3.6850; March Down $.0325 at $3.8175.  The funds again sold 5 K in Tuesday’s trading

·        Jan SB Down $.0925 at $10.14; Mar Down $.0925 at $10.2175.  Funds: sold 7 K SB, 7 K SBM and bought 3 K SB O

·        Dec Wheat Down $.06 at $5.43; March Down $.0550 at $5.4550.  The funds sold another 4 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM                    &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;           

·    &nbs​p;   ATI Research: U.S. fob corn values continue to be the highest among major exporters

·        T-storm Weather: Despite heavy rain last month in Argentina, all key corn producing areas were drier than average since then and most would benefit from a soil moisture boost

·        Private crop consultant: Argentina corn planting advanced 1.5% last week to approx. 39% v. 45% last year & 61% avg.

·        Ethanol margins: $0.92 per gallon vs. $0.71 last week and very near $0.96 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: The U.S. continues to sell soybeans at what is close to being a record rate.  The latest 4-week average of 56.7 million bushels is some 22 million above the 5-year average

·        Private crop consultant: Argentina soybean planting stands at 17% v. 12% last year and 25% avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring exports forecast at 285 mbu following recent uptick in sales activity

·        CBT December 2014 wheat closed at $5.49 on Tues.; one year ago, CBT December 2013 wheat closed at $6.42 ¼

ENERGY

·        Positive start for Futures: QCLZ14, +$0.13 at $74.74; QRBZ, +$0.0159; QNGZ, +$.020; and QHOZ, +$.0189

·        EIA estimates:  crude, -1.0 (API: +3.7); Gasoline, +0.6 (+0.5); Distillates, -1.4 (-3.3)

·        A mixed tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago down 1 ¾; Gulf eased 4; Dallas steady; Tampa up 5; New York slid 15; and LA was 1 ¾ lower at $2.68 ¼ per gallon

·        RINs firmer: 2013’s jumped 4 ½ to 53-58; 2014’s gained 5 1/8 to 54-60; and 2015’s added 5 ½ to 54-60

·        The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread continues to show ethanol at a slight, $.0188/gal premium, down from -$.0407

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​                        &​nbsp;     

·   ​     Choice boxed beef values were 2-cents higher on Tuesday and are $4.32 higher compared to last week

·        USDA 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price for last week of $169.90 was up $3.29 vs. prior week and a record

·        On Tuesday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased $1.74 and is $1.42 lower vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index up $0.12 to $88.13.  December futures down $1.45 to $91.55 and are $3.42 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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