HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 3 to 4 Higher; Soybeans, Up 6-8; Wheat, 6+ Higher
· A negative jobs report lifted stocks yesterday as market looked forward to more easy money; today, reality of slower hiring, sluggish consumer demand and subdued exports weighs. Adding to the negativity is the growing number of bad debts which Chinese banks have written off. The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and Nikkei were all down 1-2% this morning; EU bourses are running ½ to 1% lower and U.S. futures are in the red: Dow, -72; Nasdadq, -20 ½ and S&P, 9 ¾ lower. Gold is down nearly $12/oz; oil continues to slide with the $ Index up slightly, +.135 to 79.425 on the Z contract
· Highest rain chances for today are forecast for the eastern Corn Belt, with light amounts projected for nearly all of Indiana and Ohio. Some lingering showers could affect the region intoThursday before finally clearing out on Friday. No significant rain event is forecasted for the western Corn Belt until early next week. Temps are forecast to remain sharply below-normal through Friday with freezes officially ending growing season for most corn and soybean areas. Warming trend this weekend
· Dec Corn Up $.0350 at $4.4175; Mar Corn Up $.0350 at $4.5475. The funds sold 5 K on Tuesday
· Nov SB Up $.0750 at $13.0975; Jan SB Up $.0650 at $13.04. Fund were even on SB, SBM and SBO yesterday
· Dec Wheat Up $.0650 at $6.0750; Mar Wheat Up $.06 at $7.1675. Funds buy 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn harvest north of Interstate 80 just getting under way in many parts of Midwest; early yields are very large
· While aggregate corn Good/Excellent condition ratings increased 5 points during the government shutdown period, milo ratings lost 4 points to 50%. Largest declines vs. end of September seen in Colorado (-15) and Texas (-9)
· ATI Research: The corn export model anticipates inspections over the next month averaging 25mbu per week, which is 10 million more than the year ago period and within 3 million of the 5-year average
· Implied corn grind for ethanol in latest reporting week was 94 million, which is an 8 million increase over 2012
· Stronger indications of a significant reduction in planting of full-season corn in southern Brazil this fall
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Soybean harvest winding down in areas where weather permits; yields more variable, still mostly above expectations
· ATI Research: The soybean export model anticipates inspections over the next month averaging just under 50mbu per week, which is 7 million less than the year ago period but 10-11 million above the 5-year average
· Total unshipped U.S. soymeal export sales are record high for the last week of September
· Indications the amount of SRW wheat acreage in U.S. Southeast will be near normal level, although later-than-normal
· ATI Research: The wheat export model anticipates inspections over the next month averaging near 25mbu per week
· Reports suggest that fall wheat plantings in Ukraine will reach 95% of intentions despite delays due to wet weather
ENERGY
· The energy markets are mostly lower: QCLZ13, -$1.41 at $96.90; QRBZ, -$0.0109; QNGZ, +$.007 and QHOZ, -$.0213
· EIA estimates (API): crude, up 1.7 mb (+3.0); gasoline, -.1 (-0.5) and distillates, -1.1 (+0.8)
· Cash ethanol markets were lower to significantly weaker again on Tuesday: Chicago was 4 lower; Gulf off 4 ½; NY was ¼ weaker; Tampa and Dallas down 6, respectively; and LA decreased 6 ½ to $2.23 per gallon
· RINs, slightly lower: 2012’s down 1 to 28-30; 2013’s ¾ lower to 29-31; and 2014’s down ¼ at 29 ½-32
· The spread between November RBOB/ethanol closed at $.8258 on Monday, nearly 3 ¾ cents tighter
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Cattle futures jump to 8 month highs as stronger beef values boost optimism over demand
· Choice boxed beef values gained $1.04 yesterday and have increased $3.30 over the last three trading days
· After increasing $1.69 Monday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 31-cents yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.88 yesterday to $86.08
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather