HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 3 Lower; Soybeans, 8-10 Lower; Wheat, 1-2 Lower
· Overseas markets are mixed—a 2nd Chinese mfg index, the HSBC from factory purchasing managers indicated a 1.3 point gain from April to 49.4. The Nikkei gained .7%; the Hang Seng, .9% and Shanghai was also higher. Europe, however, started the day weaker with losses of .1 to .3% on weak inflation #’s, suggesting disappointing growth. Wall Street appears to be taking its opening guidance from across the Pond with both the Dow and S&P futures slightly negative. The $ Index is .058 lower at 80.74; energy futures are lower and July gold is $2 higher at $1,245.70
· T-Storm Weather: A very stormy pattern continues through 10-14 days as hot and cool air battle for position, resulting in widespread coverage of above-average rainfall; 1.00” – 3.00” amounts most common. The main events occur: 1) today-Wednesday as a powerful severe thunderstorm cluster initiates in / near Nebraska and then sweeps east-southeast over the following 12-24 hours; and 2) another system likely develops widespread rain within Saturday-Monday across the central / northern Plains and central / northern Corn Belt. Temperatures generally remain seasonable through the period
· July Corn Down $.0325 at $4.6225; September Down $.0325 at $4.56. The funds began the month of June selling 2 K
· July Soybeans Down $.0975 at $14.9075; August Down $.08 at $14.19. The funds bought 2 K SB; 3 K SBM and sold 2 K SBO
· July Wheat Down $.0150 at $6.1925; September Down $.0225 at $6.2950. The funds sold 4 K to open the week
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn planting at 95% complete as of Sunday vs. 90% in 2013 and 94% for the 5-year average
· ATI Research: USDA pegs U.S. Good/Excellent corn condition ratings at 76% vs. 63% a year ago. First look at crop condition model puts 2014 harvest at 14.018Bbu with a record national average yield of 167.8bpa
· Export Inspections; Corn, 38.4mbu (44.0 needed) Milo, 4.7 (3.5) with China in for 3.3 million bushels
· ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 corn carryout down 13mbu to 1.248Bbu; 14/15 up 84 to 1.719Bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. soybean planting at 78% complete vs. 55% in 2013 and the 5-year average of 70%.
· ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 soybeans carryout dn 5mbu at 101mbu; 14/15 also off 5 at 266mbu
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 5.7mbu (4.0 needed)
· July 2014 soybean meal futures made a new contract high of $509.40 on Monday
· ATI Research: Updated balance sheet for 13/14 HRW wheat carryout at 186mbu; 14/15 at 153mbu
· ATI Research: Latest crop model result: HRW, 726mbu (vs. 729 last week); SRW, 457 (455); White, 192 (194)
ENERGY
· Futures are slightly weaker: QCLN14, -$0.07 at $102.40; QRBN, -$0.0061; QNGN, -$.004; andQHON, -$.0073
· Cash ethanol markets lost ground to begin the week: Chicago slipped 3 ½; Gulf declined 8 ½; Dallas and New York eased 3; Tampa was down 1 ½; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $2.76 ½ per gallon
· Mixed trend in RINs: 2012’s up ½ at 45 ½-46 ½; 2013’s steady at 46-47; and 2014’s were off fractionally at 45-45 ¾
· The July RBOB/June ethanol spread lost $.0166 to settle at $.6149 on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values eased 23-cents yesterday and have declined $1.88 over the last three trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $144.39, down 7-cents from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.73 yesterday and has increased $4.37 over the last two trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained 75-cents yesterday to $108.99
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather