HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 3 Lower; Soybeans, 8 Lower; Wheat, Mixed
· The impact of crumbling oil prices continues to reverberate in global equity markets. China’s manufacturing sector atrophies further and Euro zone business activity is showing only a modest December pick-up. Much of Asia closed lower—Nikkei, down 2%; the Hang Seng, off 1.5%; only Shanghai escapes the knife, up 2.3% on stimulus hopes. Europe is mostly higher: FTSE, +1%; DAX +.4% while CAC 40 is .06% to the plus side at mid-day. U.S. futures point to a weak start: DOW, -8; S&P, -1 ¾; NAS, -8 ½. Oil looks headed for $50 as drivers rejoice; the $ Index is .647 lower and Gold, still not in favor and off $8.90 per oz
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms occur within Argentina, Paraguay, & South Brazil through Friday. A strong cool front follows, causing the jet stream to shift much further to the north. The new position of the jet stream will help thunderstorms to focus on Paraguay & South Brazil, thereby breaking drying. Although below-average rainfall is probable in key areas of Argentina through 10 days, driest weather occurs where wheat is being harvested, and temps turn unseasonably cool from this weekend forward, limiting the potential for problems. A mix of stormy and dry periods continues in Center-West and Southeast Brazil
· Mar Corn Down $.0325 at $4.0525; May Down $.03 at $4.1350. Funds bought 4 K on Monday
· Jan SB Down $.0825 at $10.3125; March Down $.08 at $10.38. Funds: sold 4 K SB; sold 2 K SBM, even SBO
· Mar Wheat Unch at $6.19; May Down $.0050 at $6.2075. The funds bought 7 K to start the week
CORN/SORGHUM   ;
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 use up 55 mbu from last week, carryout dn 55mbu to 2.205 Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 use steady vs. last week, carryout unchanged at 23 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Pockets of dryness are being monitored from Paraguay into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil where localized rainfall deficits of 3.00”-6.00” exist. However, rainfall of 1.00”-2.00” is forecast in this region Dec. 20-21
· Private consultant: Corn planting in Argentina increased 7% in the latest week to 52% complete compared to 56% last year and 71% average
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 use unch from last week, carryout steady at 390 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Dry weather would be ideal for soybean planting in Buenos Aires, Argentina
· Private consultant: Vast majority of Brazil soybeans rated good/very good; but average/mostly good in drier pockets
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 227 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 341 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Total of 44% of U.S. HRW wheat is experiencing agricultural drought
· Private consultant: Wheat crop in southern Brazil saw low yields and very poor quality due to adverse weather
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly down sharply: QCLF14, -$1.57 at $54.34; QRBF, -$0.0448; QNGF, +$.039; and QHOF, -$.0634
· Declines continued to be seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 10 ½; Gulf eased 4 ½; Dallas and New York off 4; Tampa dipped 8 ½; and LA was 9 ½ lower at $2.08 ½ per gallon
· Firmer trend in RINs: 2013’s up 1 at 60-61 ½; 2014’s gained ½ to 60 ½-62; and 2015’s added ½ to 60 ½-61 ½
· The January RBOB/January ethanol spread settled at -$.0876 on Monday as the inverse retreated $.0331/gal
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY </wbr>
· On Monday, choice boxed beef values increased 49-cents but are still $6.46 lower compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $4.45 last week to $162.38/cwt but is up $31.77 vs. last year
· USDA pork carcass cutout value increased 80-cents on Monday and is 5-cents above last week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.75 at $87.30. February futures up $0.025 to $83.275 & are $4.025 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather