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Market Trend Corn, 3 Lower, Soybeans, 8 Higher, Wheat, 10 Higher

May 20, 2014 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 3 Lower; Soybeans, 8 Higher;  Wheat, 10 Higher

·         Asia closed mostly higher overnight—the Nikkei gained nearly a ½%; Shanghai was up .15% and the Hang Seng eased .04%. Europe is currently in negative territory with both the FTSE and CAC 40 off .4%; the DAX is down a more modest .14% as weak EU economic growth, the upcoming elections and little chance of a comprehensive quantitative easing package appears unlikely.  U.S. futures point to a lower opening.  Gold is off .05% at $1,293.10; energies are mixed and the $ Index is up .034 at 80.200

·         T-Storm Weather: no change; this week’s warmer temperatures should encourage crop growth. A cool front will bring showers from NE through the southern Corn Belt Wed-Thu with light amounts.  The southern Plains will benefit from 1-2” rains late in the week.  The northern Plains and NW Corn Belt will have mixed weather for planting through the Saturday, followed by occasional thunderstorms on Sunday.  Early next week scattered showers are expected for the Corn Belt.  Expect warmer than usual temperature readings the next 10-14 days with a brief period of cooler temps in the ECB later this week.

·         July Corn Up $.03 at $4.8025 September Up $0.03 at $4.7850.   The funds sold 10 K  to open the week

·         July Soybeans Up $.0850 at $14.9375; August Up $.0625 at $14.26.  Funds:  bought 8 K SB; 7 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO

·         July Wheat Up $.1050 at $6.85; September Up $.0975 at $6.9350.  The Funds were even in Monday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Planting progress at 73% vs 65% LY and 76% for the 5-Year average.  Next week for 2013 was 86% against a 5-year average of 90%

·         Inspections were a little light at 41.7 for corn, 44 needed, 39-51 expected; milo came in at 5.8 with 3.1/wk required

·         ATI Research:   slowing of ethanol grind raised corn c/o 12 mbu to 1.267 TW (USDA:  1.146)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research Estimates:   HRW down 11 to 730 mbu; SRW steady at 454; White off 2 to 195. Total: -12 to 1.38 bbu

·         Winter wheat ratings fall 1 point to 29% G/E. 

·         Soybean export Inspections were strong (relatively speaking) at 6.2 versus 4.1/needed and 4-8 expected

·         Export inspections for wheat were 20.3 with the trade expecting 19-23 million

  • Planting progress for beans at 33% was very near expectations.  Compares to 21% LY and 38% average. The up-coming week for last year was 44% with the 5-year average of 61%
  • Spring wheat planting progress came in 49%, 25 points behind LY and 20 below the 5 year average. NW for LY was 79% with 5-year average of 86%

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed:  QCLM14, +$0.16 at $102.77; QRBM, -$0.0005; QNGM, -$.026; andQHOM, +$.0044

·         Cash ethanol markets opened the week mixed: Chicago lost 5 ½ cents; both the  Gulf and Tampa were 1 higher; Dallas lost 2; LA ended 2 ½ lower; NY was down a penny

·         RINs were steady/higher: 2012’s held at 48-49; 2013’s gained a ½ cent to 48 ¼-51; and 2014’s gained 1 1/8 to 47 ½-50

·         The June RBOB/June ethanol spread edged $.0071 wider to $.7406/gallon to start the week 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;

  • Choice boxed beef values gained $1.24 yesterday and have increased $2.14 over the last three trading days
  • The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $148.20, up 22-cents from the week before
  • After increasing $2.64 over the previous three days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value fell 40-cents yesterday
  • The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 34-cents yesterday to $109.24

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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