Market Trend Corn, 2 to 3 Lower, Soybeans, 8 to 12 Lower, Wheat, 2 to 3 Lower.
November 17, 2014 07:36 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 2-3 Lower; Soybeans, 8-12 Lower; Wheat, 2-3 Lower.
· Global markets have shown a mixed tone thus far. Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted a gain of 0.6% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng increased 0.3%. However, China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.3% and Europe is weaker; -0.61% (DAX) and -0.35% (FTSE). There is a steady tone being seen in U.S. stocks after a mostly higher week: DOW futures, +2; S&P, unch; NAS, +2. Outside markets: gold, -$9.40; energy futures, higher; $ Index, up .308
· T-storm Weather: A dissipating cool front triggers numerous thunderstorm clusters from Goias-Mato Grosso-Minas Gerais northward through Northeast Brazil over the next several days, breaking pockets of dryness; widespread rainfall of 1.00” – 3.00” is most probable in key corn and soybean areas. A few days of drying follow, but tropical humidity lingers throughout next week, helping additional thunderstorms to gradually return and keep soil profiles moist. Mainly dry weather occurs to the immediate south, improving conditions for planting across a large swath of Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay through 7-10 days
· Dec Corn Down $.0225 at $3.84; March Down $.025 at $3.9625. On Thursday, the funds bought 10 K. 0 ethanol deliveries
· Nov SB Down $.08 at $10.425; Jan Down $.1275 at $10.4075. Funds: bought 4 K SB, 0 K SBM, sold 3 K SBO. 75 SB deliveries
· Dec Wheat Down $.0225 at $5.515; March Down $.0225 at $5.5375. Fund bought another 8 K on Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM    
· December 2014 corn futures settled at $3.86 ¼ on Thursday, which is highest closing price for contract since July 17
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 16 to 24mbu corn
· T-storm Weather: Conditions for corn planting in Argentina, Paraguay and South Brazil generally improve into at least next weekend (Nov. 21-22) despite a few thunderstorms next week
· Ethanol grind: 946 thou barrels per day for week end Nov. 7—up 17 thou vs. last week and 2.0% above last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· If January 2014 soybean futures settles above $10.61 today, it would be highestFriday closing price since Aug. 8
· Export Sales released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects soybeans, 40 to 48mbu; soymeal, -100 to 100; soyoil, 10-20
· T-storm Weather: Mixed soil conditions exist for soybean planting/growth within Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil due to pockets of dry and moist areas
· CBT December 2014 wheat futures traded $5.59 on Thursday, which is highest price for contract since Sept. 2
· Export Sales released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 9-15mbu for all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Extensive snowpack in coldest areas prevented winterkill from affecting most U.S. HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLZ14, +$0.05 at $74.27; QRBZ, +$0.0137; QNGZ, +$.022; and QHOZ, +$.0152
· Steep gains were posted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago jumped 12; Gulf up 11 ¾; New York climbed 9; Tampa gained 8; Dallas added 10 ½; and LA was 16 higher at $2.53 per gallon
· Firmer RINs: 2013’s up 5/8 to 47 ½-47 ¾; 2014’s gained 3/8 to 47 ½-48; and 2015’s climbed 1 1/8 to 47 ½-47 ¾
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread decreased $.1344 cents to $.0696 on Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values were 9-cents lower on Thursday but are 83-cents higher vs. a week ago
· New contract highs were made Thursday for December 2014 live cattle futures and all 2015 contracts except August
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.26 on Thursday and is $1.10 higher compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.17 to $88.16. December futures up $0.60 to $91.275 and are $3.115 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
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Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com
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