Market Trend Corn, 2 to 3 Higher, Soybeans, Mixed, Wheat, 6 to 8 Higher
December 17, 2014 07:17 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 2-3 Higher; Soybeans, Mixed; Wheat, 6-8 Higher
· Stocks futures are higher ahead of the open during what has been an extremely volatile week of trading thus far. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesdaywith most anticipating a statement that will indicate the intention to keep interest rates low. Overseas markets have shown a mixed trend. In Asia, the Nikkei closed up 0.38% while the Hang Seng was down 0.42%. Europe is lower: FTSE, -0.74%; DAX, -0.80%. As noted, U.S. futures point to a firm start: DOW, +57; S&P, +10; NAS, +22. Oil is lower; the $ Index is .178 higher and Gold is up$4.70 per oz
· T-storm Weather: Two cool fronts sweep northward over the next week, triggering areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms in varying areas of Brazil and Paraguay. The main point remains that soil moisture improves in Paraguay and South Brazil to improve corn and soybean growth prospects, while a mix of dry and wet periods continue elsewhere in Brazil. A few thunderstorms dot Argentina this weekend as the next cool front blasts northward, but heavy rainfall focuses just north of concentrated crops. Instead, unseasonably-cool weather with below-average rainfall occurs through 10 days
· Mar Corn Up $.0275 at $4.0875; May Up $.025 at $4.17
· Jan SB Up $.05 at $10.24; March Up $.05 at $10.3175
· Mar Wheat Up $.0875 at $6.32; May Up $.0775 at $6.34
CORN/SORGHUM    
·   ATI Research: Brazil remains the cheapest world corn export origin; U.S. Gulf prices are $10 per MT premium to Brazil
· T-storm Weather: Generally favorable weather for corn planting/growth across Argentina continues into late-month
· Private crop consultant: Double crop corn acres in Brazil expected to decline due to potential delay in soybean harvest
· Ethanol margins: $0.58 per gallon vs. $0.63 last week and below $0.81 last year. EIA report at9:30 AM CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Expect U.S. soybean exports of 40-50 mbu per week near-term via the Mississippi River
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain of 1.50”-3.00” is expected Dec. 20-22 across South Brazil and Paraguay, thereby breaking ongoing drying and improving conditions for soybean development
· ATI Research: Latest indicators suggest potential for a decline in the forecast of U.S. SRW wheat exports
· Chicago March wheat futures traded to $6.39 on Tuesday—highest price since June 23, 2014
· T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains generally remain dry and seasonable into at least Dec. 22
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly lower: QCLF14, -$1.01 at $54.92; QRBF, -$0.0152; QNGF, +$.032; andQHOF, -$.0149
· EIA estimates: crude, -1.9 (API: +1.9); Gasoline, +2.0 (+2.8); Distillates, +1.0 (-1.0)
· Weakness in cash ethanol markets persisted on Tuesday: Chicago off 7 ¾; Gulf plummeted 18; Dallas slid 18 ½; New York eased 7 ½; Tampa declined 9 ½; and LA was 13 ½ lower at $1.95 per gallon
· RINs were higher: 2013’s up 1 ¼ at 61-63; 2014’s increased 1 ¾ to 62-64; and 2015’s gained 2 to 62-64
· The January RBOB/January ethanol spread is trading at -$.06230 on Wednesday, up $.0607/gal
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values declined $2.64 on Tuesday, are down $7.63 vs. last week & at the lowest level since Oct. 6
· December live cattle futures traded to $158.975 on Tuesday—the lowest price for the contract since Sept. 26, 2014
· USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased $4.15 Tuesday, is $4.72 below last week and at lowest level since Jan. 31
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.70 at $86.60. February futures down $1.60 to $81.675 & are $4.925 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
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Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com
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