HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, 2 to 3 Higher;  Soybeans, 2-3 Higher; Wheat, Up 4-5

·         Budget deal lifts Asian stocks  with the Nikkei up 1.1%; U.S. stocks—buy the rumor, sell the fact—Dow futures 28 lower; Nasdaq futures pointing to a slightly better opening, up .75; S&P, down 1 ¾. Gold appears to be the hot item this morning, up $25.10 per oz.  Interesting blurb on Reuters—biggest risk to the U.S. economy is Washington, or rather elected officials there—11^thhour budget/debt resolutions; indiscriminate spending cuts; policy blunders, etc. Government by crisis keeping corporations from spending on new capital investments and hiring. Energies are mostly lower; $ Index on the defensive, ½ point lower at 79.99

·         T-storm Weather: A sharply colder pattern dominates the central U.S. through 10-14 days – particularly cold from the northern Plains through the northeast half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt.  Light rain and snow showers accompany coldness (especially from North Dakota through the Great Lakes region next week), but areas to the south stay mostly dry.  Drying is badly needed across South Dakota; an argument can be made that all of its HRW wheat will not be planted given that 97%, 94%, and 49% of its crop received at least three-times its average rainfall over the last 7, 14, and 30 days.

·         Dec Corn Up $.0250 at $4.4525; Mar Corn Up $.0225 at $4.5750.     Funds sold 3 K yesterday 

·         Nov Soybeans Up $.0250 at $12.79; Jan SB Up $.0250 at $12.7725.  Fund bought 6 K SB; 2 K SBM and 4 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0450 at $6.86; Mar Wheat Up $.0425 at $6.9525.   Funds sell another 3 KWednesday

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &n​bsp;  NOTE: The USDA will decide by the end of the week whether to cancel October Crop Production and WASDE reports

·         At this time, it’s uncertain if the USDA Crop Progress report will be available next week.  ATI Research projects that corn mature for week ending Oct. 20 will be 94-97%, which is below last year’s 100% but near the avg. of 95%

·         Corn harvest for week ending Oct. 20 likely to be near 35%, which is well below last year’s 86% & the average of 53%

·         Current economics indicate the likelihood of a significant reduction in corn planting in Brazil this fall (first crop) into early 2014 (double crop)

·         T-storm Weather: In Argentina, conditions for corn planting remain favorable in wettest areas but stay mixed to unfavorable in driest areas

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         The trend in U.S. soybean yields remains surprisingly high in many areas despite the lack of rain during late summer

·         Soybeans dropping leaves for week end Oct. 20 likely to be 96-98%--behind last year’s 100% and the 99% avg.

·         Soybean harvest for week end Oct. 20 likely to be 55-60%, which is well below last year’s 79% & the average of 69%

·         T-storm Weather: Rainfall through next week improves soil moisture for soybean planting across Center-West Brazil

·         Concerns remain about a significant loss of planted wheat acreage in Russia and Ukraine this fall due to wet weather

·         Winter wheat planting for week end Oct. 20 likely to be near 80%--equal to last year and close to the avg. of 78%

ENERGY

·         The energy markets are mostly lower: QCLX13, -$0.53 at $101.76; QRBX, -$0.0107; QNGX, +$.015 and QHOX, -$.0089

·         API numbers show large 5.9 build in crude; distillates down 1.3 mb and gasoline stocks off 2.2

·         Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Wednesday: Chicago was 1 ¼ higher; Gulf was up ¾; NY was 5 ½ lower; Dallas was 2 ½ higher; Tampa up 4; and LA increased 4 ½to $2.32 per gallon

·         RINs, nudged fractionally higher: 2012’s up ½ to 32-35; 2013’s ½ higher to 33-36; and 2014’s up ¼ at 33-36

·         The November RBOB/ethanol spread lost nearly 2 cents to $.8941 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                        &nbs​p;                  

​·         Cattle futures closed higher yesterday on optimism cash cattle will trade at higher prices this week

·         Cash cattle markets are quiet, but some packers raised bids to $128, steady with last week, feedyards are asking $130

·         Lean-hog futures increased yesterday after reports market hog supplies are tighter than expected in Eastern markets

·          Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather