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Market Trend Corn, 2 Lower, Soybeans, 6 to 7 Lower, Wheat, 2 Higher

November 24, 2014 07:59 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, 2 Lower; Soybeans, 6-7 Lower; Wheat, ½ to 2 Higher  

·         Follow-through from Friday’s Chinese rate cut has led most global markets higher this morning.  Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai closed up nearly 2% with the Nikkei rising a more modest .33%.  Mid-day trade in Europe indicates a .81% gain for the CAC 40; the DAX is up 2/3’s of a point but the FTSE is off .11%.  Pre-market readings for the U.S. find DOW futures up 26 points; the NAS is 10.7 higher and the S&P500, +3 ¾. Externals:  energy futures are lower; gold is $2.80 cheaper and the $ Index, off .068.

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of heavy rainfall expectedly affected key corn and soybean areas of Brazil and Paraguay over the weekend, while Argentina was expectedly dry; wettest weather focused on key areas of Center-West Brazil where several areas received over 2.00.  Looking ahead, widespread rainfall of 2.50" - 5.00" affects much of Center-West and Southeast Brazil through 7-10 days as cool fronts dissipate across the region; around 2.00" - 2.50" is average for the period  Further south, 1.00" - 2.00" of rain affects South Brazil and Paraguay, but longer periods of drying occur between each rain event 

·         Dec Corn Down $.02 at $3.7075; March Down $.0150 at $3.84.  The funds bought 5 K in Friday’strade 

·         Jan SB Down $.06 at $10.335; Mar Down $.0725 at $10.3875.  Funds: bought 6 K SB, 6 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.4575; March Up $.0175 at $5.5525.  The funds bought 3 K on Friday

CORN/SORGHUM                              &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​        

·         ​;ATI Research: U.S. corn harvest estimated at 92-95% as of Nov. 23 vs. the 5-year avg. of approximately 93%

·         T-storm Weather: Lack of rain in Argentina recently began aiding planting after sluggish start, but additional amounts may eventually be needed; 40% of Argentina corn planted as of Nov. 20—slightly behind pace of the last 2 years

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 35.2 needed; 15.8 last week.  Milo—3.9 needed; 7.0 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 8,724 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Inspection released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 27.1 needed; 114.4last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions decrease 12,471 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: A round of rain would be ideal for U.S. HRW wheat given that 73% of production received less than three-fourths of its average precipitation over the last 30 days

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.1 needed; 5.1 last week

ENERGY

·         Futures are weaker: QCLF14, -$0.027 at $76.24; QRBF, -$0.0131; QNGF, -$.222; and QHOF, -$.0168

·         Cash ethanol markets higher on Friday: Chicago up 16; Gulf gained 18; Dallas added 6; Tampa climbed 3 ½; New York jumped 17; and LA was 6 ½ higher at $2.66 per gallon

·         RINs sharply lower: 2013’s off 6 ¾ at 44-56 ½; 2014’s down 6 ½ at 45-57; and 2015’s eased 6 ½ to 44 ½-56 ½

·         The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread ended the week with ETOH at a premium, -$.0035/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;          

​ ·         Choice boxed beef values were 17-cents lower Friday but $3.06 higher compared to the previous week

·         Cattle on Feed report: On feed Nov.1, 100.5% (99.8 est.); placed in Oct. 99.1%, (95.7); marketed in Oct. 92.2%, (92.6)

·         On Friday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value increased 74-cents but is still down $2.01 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.09 to $88.86.  December futures down $0.125 to $90.65 & are $1.79 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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