HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, 2-3 Lower; Soybeans, 5-10 Lower; Wheat, Mixed   

·         Global equity markets are treading water ahead of Friday’s U.S. retail sales data release by the Commerce Department.  The Hang Seng posted a slight gain; the Nikkei was off .3% while China’s Shanghai Composite rose .6% on carry-over effects of strong industrial production numbers earlier in the week. Europe is flat in early trading and indications from NY have Dow futures off 8; the S&P 1 ¼ lower while the Nasdaq is up 1. As for the outside markets, gold is nearly $4/oz cheaper at $1,360; the $ Index is barely changed at 81.52 and most of the energy complex is posting slightly firmer numbers.  

·         Much of the Midwest received light showers the past 24 hours with a narrow ½” band extending through S NE along the IA/MO border and across C IL into N IN/NW OH. Today’s outlook calls for some rains in parts of the western Midwest—N MO and S IA but much of IA is likely to miss this event.  More rains are forecast for western KS and eastern CO and possibly into N KS and NE.  The Northern Plains will be mostly dry, allowing spring wheat harvest to progress; no early frost is in the forecast to threaten corn and soybeans in the region. In Brazil, showers are possible next Tue-Thu for parts of Mato Grosso; the southern Argentine winter wheat belt has had moderate to locally heavy precip of late, but western areas could use additional moisture. 

·         Sep Corn Down $.0275 at $4.77; Dec Corn Down $.0325 at $4.6925. Funds were estimated to be even on the day 

·         Sep Soybeans Down $.0525 at $14.0; Nov SB Down $.0750 at $13.51.  Funds: even on beans, meal and oil

·         Dec Wheat, Up $.0050 at $6.3550; Mar Wheat Down $.0225 at $6.4575.  The funds were even on Wednesday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·         <​em>WASDE report at 11:00 CDT today: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn crop is 13.641Bbu in a range from 13.360-14.000

·         WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. corn 13/14 carrryout is 1.739Bbu (1.837 in August); range, 1.278-2.296

·         Corn Export Sales report released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 16-20mbu

·         Central Illinois corn hybrid planted May 14 that requires 2700 Growing Degree Units to reach maturity has 2632 GDUs through Sept. 10.  This crop should be mature by early next week

·         Weekly ethanol grind increases 29 thous barrels to 848 thous and that’s also up 32 thous or 3.9% vs. last year’s 816

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for soybean production is 3.134Bbu in a range from 2.980-3.208

·         WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. soybean 13/14 carrryout is 165mbu (220 in August), range, 105-220

·         Soybean Export Sales: Trade expecting 24-29mbu

·         SBM export sales est 20-80 for 12/13 (need: -50.5), 50-150 for 13/14; SBO at 5-10 KMT for 12/13, (9.3); 5-10 for 13/14

·         WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. all wheat 13/14 carrryout is 544mbu (551 in August), range, 353-600

·         Wheat Export Sales: Trade expecting 17-24 for 13/14 delivery against 13.3/wk needed

·         T-storm Weather: Heavy rain (1.25”-2.50”) focuses on HRW wheat in western area of Central Plains through Saturday

ENERGY

·         Energy is again, mostly higher:  QCLV13, up $.97 at $108.54; QRBV, +.0400; QNGV,-$.026 and QHOV, +$.0302

·         Some erratic numbers in cash ethanol:  Chicago reported 23 ¼ lower; LA off 6 cents; Dallas and Tampa were 6 ½ to 7 cents weaker; the Gulf fell 8 ¾ while NW was indicated 12 cents higher to the $2.59-$2.61 range

·         RINs: 2012’s fell 5 ¼ cents to 61-66 cents; 2013’s dropped 3 ¼ to a 63-67 cent range and 2014’s were 63-68, down 4 ½

·         The October RBOB/ethanol spread closed at $.8290 cents, $.0115/gallon tighter from Tuesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​;                        ​               

·  ​;       After falling $2.83 during the previous four trading days, Choice boxed beef values firmed 20-cents yesterday

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.30 yesterday and has increased $2.42 over the last four trading days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 71-cents yesterday to $92.92

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 5.2% from LY, chick placements increase 3.5% from LY

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather