HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1 to 2 Higher; Soybeans, 5-6 Higher; Wheat, Steady to Up 1
· D-Day for Washington with the world equity markets rather calm ahead of what could be a rather severe economic storm tomorrow should law-makers fail to reach a compromise. Asian markets were mixed overnight but traders did note close to a 2% drop in the Shanghai Composite. Europe is off to a lower start with the FTSE, DAX and CAC-40 all in the red. U.S. stock futures seem optimistic: the Dow is up 65; the Nasdaq, 7 ¼ higher and the S&P, up 7. Gold is trading $9.80 to the plus side; the $ Index is off 1/10 of a point at 80.445 and the energy markets area all slightly higher
· T-storm Weather: Potent rain system will gradually exit the Midwest over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall similar to that experienced in central/northern Plains and western Corn Belt does not occur. Therefore, conditions for SRW wheat planting in IN, KY, and OH manage to improve despite wetness over the last two weeks. A notably colder pattern follows with occasional frosts and freezes. Light showers (potentially including snow showers across Great Lakes) occur at times through late month, but a significant system is not immediately foreseen. Conditions for HRW/SRW planting & corn/soybean harvest gradually improve.
· Dec Corn Up $.0150 at $4.45; Mar Corn Up $.0125 at $4.57. Funds buy estimated to have bought 6 K Tuesday
· Nov Soybeans Up $.0525 at $12.7225; Jan SB Up $.0525 at $12.7125. Fund activity: sold 2 K SB, 4 K SBM, bought 3 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.01 at $6.8675; Mar Wheat Up $.0075 at $6.9625. Funds sell 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: U.S. corn crop est. at 13.858Bbu with national yield of 158.1; 13/14 carryout estimated at 2.125Bbu
· U.S. corn export inspections for the week ending Oct. 10 were 21.7mbu vs. 25.3 last week and 17.3 last year
· AT I Research: September-November U.S. corn export forecast is 275mbu, or about 55 million more than 2012
· Corn harvest north of Highway I-80 continues to be limited as producers focus on soybeans where weather permits
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a few thunderstorms return to all corn producing areas Saturday-Sunday (Oct. 19-20) but high coverage of heavy rainfall is not expected. At least several days of drying follow
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean crop est. at 3.197Bbu with a national yield of 42.2; 13/14 carryout estimated at 177mbu
· Heavy rain in western Corn Belt likely to keep producers out of soybean harvest for at least a few days
· NOPA report: Soybean crush: 108.7mbu vs. avg. guess of 107.1 (range from 103.0-111.0) & vs. 119.7 last year; soyoil stocks, 1.372 bil lbs, well below avg. guess of 1.454 (range 1.285-1.600) implies higher-than-expected domestic use
· U.S. soybean export inspections for the week ending Oct. 10 were 47.4mbu vs. 30.7 last week and 58.1 last year
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports could be closer to 70mbu per week by mid-November
· U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending Oct. 10 were 25.3mbu vs.29.8 last week and 7.0 last year
· ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring 13/14 carryout estimated at 195mbu
· There are ideas that Argentina’s wheat crop could end up below 10.0mmt vs. most recent USDA estimate of 12.0
ENERGY
· The energy markets are higher: QCLX13, +$0.08 at $101.29; QRBX, +$0.0071; QNGX, +$.055 and QHOX, +$.0040
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer on Tuesday: Chicago was 5 ¼ higher; Gulf was up 1 ½; NY was 1 lower; Dallas was 4 higher; Tampa up 4 ½; and LA increased 5 ½to $2.27 ½ per gallon
· RINs, higher again: 2012’s up 1 ½ to 32-34; 2013’s 2 higher to 33-35; and 2014’s up 2 ¾ at 33 ½-35
· The November RBOB/ethanol spread tugged in $.048 to $.8758 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·  Feeder cattle futures fell sharply yesterday on profit taking after setting new record highs in recent days
· Cattle futures also fell in sympathy with feeder cattle and technical selling
· Lean-hog futures increased yesterday after reports of firm cash hog prices in some markets
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather