HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, Up 6-7; Wheat, 1 Higher
· World stock markets are weaker this morning with selling linked to the U.S. government shutdown. Fallout from the shutdown includes the inability of traders to get a look at the September jobs report, which was scheduled to be released on Friday. Instead, the only official look at the jobs market will be from payroll company ADP, which releases its survey of private employers at 7:15 CDT today. Expectations are companies added 180,000 jobs in September. Dow futures are 73 points lower; the S&P is off 11; and the Nasdaq is down 15. The dollar fell to a one-month low vs. the Yen today. Gold up $8 higher with oil slightly lower
· T-storm Weather is forecasting scattered thunderstorms in the Corn Belt today, but the brunt of heavy rainfall occurs Thursday-Friday from the central / northern Plains through the northwest Corn Belt where planting / harvesting slow and stop from 1.25” – 2.50” amounts. Although sharply colder weather with some frost follows in northern areas, most soybeans and at least 50% of corn are free of freeze damage in this region. Seasonable to mild and mostly dry weather likely follows for at least a few days. In South America, temperatures turn notably warmer this weekend and next week in Argentina. A few showers accompany the transit to warmth , but driest areas remain mostly dry through 7-10 days; corn planting remains sluggish until heavy rain arrives
· Dec Corn Dn $.015 at $4.375; Mar Corn Dn $.015 at $4.5025.
· Nov Soybeans Up $.0775 at $12.7575; Jan SB Up $.0725 at $12.7725.
· Dec Wheat Up $.0075 at $6.82; Mar Wheat Up $.01 at $6.905.
CORN/SORGHUM
· CZ3 corn futures traded to $4.35 overnight, which is the lowest price for the contract since August 31,2010
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms occur in the Corn Belt Wednesday-Thursday but brunt of heavy rainfall occursThursday-Friday from the central/northern Plains through the northwest Corn Belt with 1.25”-2.50” amounts
· Corn mature for week ending Oct. 6 likely to be 80-85%, which is well below last year’s 97% but near the avg. of 83%
· Corn harvest for week ending Oct. 6 likely to be 20-25%, which is well below last year’s 67% and the average of 33%
· ATI Research: Expect weekly U.S. corn exports to be in the 15-22mbu range over the next month
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Soybeans dropping leaves for week end Oct. 6 likely to be 80-85%--behind last year’s 92% but near the 86% avg.
· Soybean harvest for week end Oct. 6 likely to be 25-30%, which is well below last year’s 54% and the average of 40%
· ATI Research: Year-to-date export sales of U.S. soybeans are record large at 944mbu, up from last year’s previous seasonal high of 815 million
· ATI Research: Expect weekly U.S. soybean exports to be in the mid to high 50mbu range by the end of October
· Winter wheat planting for week end Oct. 6 likely to be 55-60%, which is near last year’s 55% and the 57% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. exports of all wheat are forecast to range from 30-35mbu per week over the next month, with HRW at 9-12, SRW ranging from 8-12 and HRS 5-7
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mostly lower: QCLX13, -$0.23 to $101.80; QRBX, -0.0163; QNGX, -$.015 and QHOX, +$.0033
· Cash ethanol markets were sharply lower on Tuesday: Chicago was off 13 ½ cents; NY down 8 cents; Gulf a dime weaker; Dallas off 5 ½; and Tampa 6 ½ lower at $2.29 ½ per gallon
· RINs, lower: 2012’s up ¾ cent to 40-46; 2013’s 1 ¼ higher to 43-47 and 2014’s firmer by 1 ½ to 44-47 ½
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Cattle futures fell yesterday as traders worried tight packer margins would limit cash cattle prices this week
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $128 to $129 while packers bid $123. Cattle traded LW at $126
· Hog futures declined further yesterday after Friday’s Hogs & Pigs report revealed larger than expected hog supplies
· USDA cash livestock and meat values are not available due to the government shutdown
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com