HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 1 to 2 Lower; Soybeans, Mixed;  Wheat, Down 7

·         The pace of Chinese inflation eased to 1.8% in April, signaling a slow-down in demand growth and opening the door for further stimulus measures.  Shanghai slipped .21% lower; the Nikkei edged up .25% and the Hang Seng rose .12%.  Europe is lower across the board with the FTSE, -.33%; the DAX, -.32% and the CAC 40, -.51%.  The Ukraine is facing an independence referendum this weekend, adding to the market’s unease.  U.S. futures are lower:  S&P, -2.75; Dow, -20; Nasdaq, -8.25.  Gold is up $1.80 at $1,289.50; energy futures are mostly higher and the $ Index is .183 higher a 79.70.

·         T-Storm Weather: Two large systems develop rain across corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas of the northern Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta over the next 5 days, and help heat to recur in the southwest Plains.  Heavy rainfall is most probable in the central Corn Belt (not the west or east) where 1.00” – 2.00” is forecasted, though an argument can be made for 1.25” – 2.50” amounts due to the Sunday-Mondaysystem.  Any thunderstorms are only expected to clip the eastern edge of drought-stricken wheat in Kansas-Oklahoma, leaving a major drought in place.  A sharply cooler pattern follows next week across the Corn Belt and northern Plains

·         May Corn Down $.0075 at $5.1250; July Down $.0150 at $5.15.  The funds were buyers of 2 KThursday

·         May SB Down $.0425 at $14.70; July Up $.0125 at $14.7075. Funds bought 7 K SB, 6 K SBM and 3 K SBO

·         May Wheat NA; July Down $.08 at $7.2725.  The funds sold 1 K in yesterday’s trade

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         USDA Supply/Demand report at 11 AM CDT: Avg. trade estimate for 13/14 U.S. corn carryout, 1.307Bbu vs. 1.331 in April; avg. estimate for initial 14/15 carryout forecast is 1.641Bbu.  Avg. guess for 2014 corn crop size is 13.736Bbu

·         ATI Research: Despite a slow week of corn export sales, unshipped book is still the highest since at least mid-1980s

·         T-storm Weather: Pockets of showers probable across much of central/northern Plains, Corn Belt, & Delta May 13-16

·         Corn deliveries:   7

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade estimate for 13/14 U.S. soybean carryout, 133mbu vs. 135 in April; avg. estimate for initial 14/15 carryout forecast is 297mbu.  Avg. guess for 2014 soybean crop size is 3.542Bbu

• USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade estimate for 13/14 U.S. all wheat carryout, 585mbu vs. 583 in April; avg. estimate for initial 14/15 carryout forecast is 568mbu.  Avg. guess for 2014 all wheat crop size is 2.069Bbu
• Avg. trade guess for U.S. winter wheat production: 1.460Bbu; HRW, 0.762; SRW, 0.478; and White, 0.221

·         Soy complex deliveries:  94 SB; 19 SBM; 378 SBO; Wheat: 106 KC; 139 CHI

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly higher: QCLM14, +$0.44 at $100.70; QRBM, +$0.0198; QNGM, -$.002; and QHOM, +$.0163

·         Ongoing recovery in cash ethanol markets continued Thursday: Chicago jumped 11; Gulf climbed 15; Dallas gained 16; New York added 13; Tamps was up 18; and LA was 13 firmer at $2.29 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were steady to slightly firmer: 2012’s up ½ to 42 ½-43 ½; 2013’s unch at 43-44; and 2014’s steady at at 41-42

·         The June RBOB/June ethanol spread fell $.1082 to $.75/gallon on Thursday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;        

• Choice boxed beef values fell $1.50 yesterday and have declined $3.25 over the last three days
• After gaining 16-cents on Wednesday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 3-cents yesterday
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell 94-cents yesterday to $111.79
• Broiler egg set last week was up 0.4% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is up 1.4%

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather