HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1 to 2 Lower; Soybeans, Down 7-8; Wheat, 3-4 Lower
· Asian markets were mixed ahead of this morning’s U.S. jobs report with Europe expected to open steady to slightly lower. September non-farm payrolls are expected to show a 180 K increase, up from 169 in August with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.3%. The report takes on lesser importance as a result of the 16-day government closure which some think took as much as .6% of 4th quarter GDP, thereby reducing the chance the Fed stimulus will be scaled back anytime soon. Stock futures are mixed: Dow’sup 4; Nasdaq is 1 ½ higher and S&P is ¾ lower. Energies are mixed; gold is $3.10 weaker and the $ Index is nominally firmer at 79.795
· Highest chance for rain today is across Illinois with amounts up to 0.25” projected. With plummeting temps, there is even talk of snow flurries. Scattered rain also is forecast across most of Iowa with the eastern third to see highest amounts. Light rain is also in the possible for Indiana and Ohio, as well as South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska. Widespread frosts and freezes were forecast for the entire Midwest today, with much cooler-than-normal readings to persist the entire week
· Dec Corn Down $.0125 at $4.4275; Mar Corn Down $.0150 at $4.5525. Funds bought 2 K to start the trading week
· Nov SB Down $.0850 at $12.9475; Jan SB Down $.0775 at $12.9275. Fund buy 6 K; 5 K SBM and were even on SBO
· Dec Wheat Down $.0325 at $6.9650; Mar Wheat Down $.0350 at $7.0625. Funds were sellers of 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Larger-than-expected corn yields being seen in parts of Iowa
· ATI Research: Good/Excellent corn conditions up 5 points from Sept. 29 report to 60%; national yield up 0.8 bpa to 158.9. Crop size est is 13.927Bbu. Gain of 9% in G/E in Iowa & Minnesota, respectively, with Indiana +8, Illinois +6
· ATI Research: 13/14 ending stocks up 7mbu from last week to 2.132Bbu
· Corn progress: Mature, 94% vs. 100% in ’12 & 97% avg; harvest, 39% vs. 85% LY & 53% avg.
· Export Inspections; Corn, 32.3mbu (23.9 needed) with China taking 16.8. Milo, 5.9 (3.0 needed) with China taking 2.4
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: G/E soybean conditions up 4 points from Sept. 29 report to 57%; national yield up 0.5 bpa to 42.7. Crop size est is 3.229Bbu. Gain of 8% in G/E in Indiana & N Dakota, respectively, with Iowa, Minnesota & Nebraska all +7
· ATI Research: 13/14 ending stocks up 18 million to 195mbu
· Soybean progress: Dropping leaves, 94% vs. 98% in ‘12 & 5-year avg of 97%; harvest, 63% vs. 79% in ‘12, 69% avg
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 59.3mbu (26.6 needed) with China taking 49.0
· ATI Research: 13/14 SRW wheat carryout pegged at 65mbu
· Export Inspections: Wheat, 20.6mbu (16.5 needed) with China taking 6.4
· Winter wheat progress: Planted, 79% vs. 80% in ‘12 & 5-year avg of 79%; emergence, 53% vs. 48% in ‘12, 54% avg
ENERGY
· The energy markets are mixed: QCLX13, -$0.32 at $98.90; QRBX, +$0.0082; QNGX, -$.024 and QHOX, +$.0104
· Cash ethanol markets were lower to significantly weaker in some locations on Monday: Chicago was 3 lower; Gulf off 1 ½; NY was down 5 ¾; Tampa was 2 lower; Dallas off 3; and LA decreased 3 ½ to $2.29 ½ per gallon
· RINs, near steady: 2012’s up ¼ to 28 ½-31 ½; 2013’s ¼ higher to 29 ½-32; and 2014’s unchanged at 30 ½-31 ½
· The spread between November RBOB/ethanol closed at $.8258 on Monday, nearly 3 ¾ cents tighter
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values gained $2.00 yesterday and have increased $2.26 over the last two trading days
· After falling $1.53 Friday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value rebounded $1.69 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.36 yesterday to $88.69
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather