HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, 5-6 Lower; Wheat, Down 1-2
· Just not a lot of good news out yesterday/over-night: PRC mfg at a 7-month low; some Fed policy-makers argue higher interest rates should be considered, despite less than exciting economic news of late. EU mfg & service sector activity falls to 52.7 from 52.9 and versus 53.0 consensus. Asia was .2 to 2.2% lower; early trade has key Europe bourses .3% to 1.2% lower and U.S. futures are all in the red with the Dow off 8 and the Nasdaq, -7 ¼. Energies, lower; gold, -.55% and $ Index, +.149 @ 80.335.
· Some uncertainty the next 7-10 days for S Am. Key point is a surface-level high pressure will suppress rain along the Brazil coastline. Cool fronts will move north from Argentina, leading to near-average rainfall there; above-average amounts in Center-West Brazil; near/below-average for S/SE Brazil and Paraguay. Note Arg has received from 9-13” since mid-January in contrast to an average of only 4” in S Brazil. In the U.S. a small, intense system brings widespread rain/strong t-storms to much of the Corn Belt/Delta through tonight. Snowfall amounts across the northwest Corn Belt are debatable, but at least a few inches occur with very high winds with gusts to 60 miles per hour. A sharply colder pattern gradually follows-possible record lows.
· Mar Corn Down $.02 at $4.5175; May Corn Down $.02 at $4.5825. Funds were back in for 6 K on Wednesday
· Mar SB Down $.06 at $13.4825; May Down $.0525 at $13.3675. Funds sold 4 K SB, sold 2 K SBM and were even on SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.0125 at $6.19; May Wheat Down $.0150 at $6.12. The funds purchased 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA to release preliminary balance sheets for 14/15 at the annual Outlook Conference later today or Friday
· Reuters survey forecasts Brazil corn crop at 73.7, down 1.8 MMT from LM with the USDA nearly 4 lower at 70
· U.S. exporters have sold 85% of the USDA’s February corn export forecast, an all-time high
· Unrest in the Ukraine has so far left corn exports unaffected, but there is some obvious concern. Other suggesting producers there will put a hold on grain sales and this could add as much as $10-$20/MT premium to prices
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Japan purchased 43 thousand MT of Canadian CWRS yesterday
· Canadian rail concerns continue to support wheat prices
· Texas wheat rated 17% G/E, down 1 from a week ago and versus 14% a year ago
· Argentina continues to received unwelcome rains while Mato Grosso/MGDS also remain wet
· According to Reuters, survey says Brazil crop is 89.6, down from 89.7 in January with USDA at 90.0
· Some in trade dismissing Oil World ‘s 85 MMT Brazilian estimate as too low
· Ukrainian internal conflict could impact global oilseeds—country is the world largest supplier of sunflower oil, approximately 4.1 MMT expected for 13/14, close to 60% of the world total
ENERGY
· Energy markets are lower: QCLH14, -$0.16 at $103.15; QRBH, -$0.0306; QNGH, -$.157 andQHOH, -$.0128
· EIA estimates (API): Crude stx, +1.8 mb (-0.5); gasoline, -0.5 (+1.4) and distillates, -1.9 (-0.7)
· Cash ethanol markets were little changed expect for Chicago which was 3 ½ lower at $2.05/gallon. The Gulf and Tampa were steady; Dallas gained a penny and both NY and LA were a penny lower
· RINs were mostly softer: 2012’s down 1½, 55 -57; 2013’s slipped a ½, 56-59 while 2014’s remained 54-56
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread narrowed in $.0136/gallon at $.7237
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values gained $1.86 yesterday and have increased $6.17 over the last three days
· After increasing $5.03 over the previous nine trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout fell $1.03 yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $2.09 yesterday to $90.42
· Last week’s broiler egg set was up 0.8% from last year and has averaged 1.2% above last year over the last four weeks
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather