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Market Trend Corn, 1 to 2 Lower, Soybeans, 3 to 4 Lower, Wheat, 8 to 9 Higher. French

December 22, 2014 07:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, 3-4 Lower; Wheat, 8-9 Higher.  French wheat, up 10; Corn, ¾ higher

·         Markets around the globe are starting the Christmas week on a positive note—Japan’s Nikkei is +.08%; Shanghai, +.65% and the Hang Seng, +1.26%.  Mid-day trade in Europe has the DAX, FTSE and CAC 40 all up .70-.90% as sentiment there is said to be driven by higher oil prices and a modest recovery in the Russian Ruble.  Pre-markets in the U.S. suggest a 50 point higher start in the DOW with NASDAQ futures up 12 and the S&P 500, +5 ¼. With the exception of Feb Nat Gas, energy futures are higher; the $ Index is off .111 at 89.73 and gold is trading $2 higher at $1,197.20

·         T-storm Weather: A strong cool front triggers heavy thunderstorms from northeast Argentina through southern Brazil and Paraguay through Tuesday.  It is plausible for areas in / near northern Santa Fe (Argentina) to receive too much rain since over 12.00” was measured the last 30 days, but at least 5 days of drying follow in response to unseasonable coolness.  Thunderstorms should return next weekend or early the following week (Dec. 27-30) as the jet stream remains nearby.  Otherwise, the remnant of the strong cool front causes heavy thunderstorm clusters to erupt from Tuesdayforward in Center-West and Southeast Brazil

·         Mar Corn Down $.0150 at $4.09; May Down $.0175 at $4.1725.  Funds were even in Friday’strade 

·         Jan SB Down $.0375 at $10.2675; March Down $.04 at $10.3450.  Funds: sold 4 K SB; 2 K SBM; even for the 3rd day on SBO

·         Mar Up $.09 at $6.4125; May Up $.0875 at $6.4375.  The funds sold 8 K to close out the week

CORN/SORGHUM                                ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;      

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $4.10 ½ on Fri.—the highest weekly settlement price for nearby corn since July 3

·         T-storm Weather: Heavy rains through this week keep (or turn) corn in Brazil and Paraguay moist to wet.  
Above-average rainfall of 1.50”-3.00” results for the region to further break drying

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 36.5 needed; 21.5 last week.  Milo—3.5 needed; 8.6 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 4,918 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 22.2 needed; 66.9 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 5,428 contracts

·         T-storm Weather: Except for a pocket or two of excessive wetness in Argentina, significant weather-related issues are not foreseen through at least 10 days

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.8 needed; 9.9 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions increase 7,872 contracts

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly firmer: QCLG15, +$0.06 at $57.19; QRBG, +$0.0066; QNGG, -$.166; andQHOG, +$.0026

·         Cash ethanol markets were steady to lower on Friday: Chicago and Gulf down 1 ½; Dallas off 9 ½; New York steady; Tampa slid 11; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $1.76 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s up 1 ½ at 64-67; 2014’s gained 1 to 65 ½-68; and 2015’s climbed 1 to 65-67 ½

·         The inverse in the January RBOB/January ethanol spread eased nearly 5 ¼ cents to -$.0523/gallon on Friday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                  

·         Choice boxed beef values declined $3.38 on Fri., are down $6.46 vs. last week & at the lowest level since Oct. 3

·         Cattle on Feed: On feed, 101.4% (avg. est, 101.1%); placed in Nov., 96.0% (96.1%); marketed in Nov, 88.9% (89.9%)

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value declined 65-cents Fri., is $5.40 below last week & at lowest level since Jan. 22, 2014

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $1.26 at $83.89.  February futures up $0.025 to $81.90 & are $1.99 below the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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