HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, 16-18 Higher;  Wheat, 3-4 Lower

·         Markets in Asia finished mixed:  Nikkei, +.36%; Hang Seng, -.07% and Shanghai, -.17%.  Early trading has 2 out of 3 European bourses higher—DAX, +.36%; CAC-40, +.04% with the FTSE off .05%. U.S. stock futures are leaning towards a slightly positive opening—S&P, +1.75; Dow, +15 and the Nasdaq, +7 ¼.  Fed meeting concludes today, expected to stay the course in terms of reducing the stimulus program.  Energy futures, mostly lower; gold, off $13/oz; $ Index, +.023 @ 79.715

·         Temps in the Eastern Pacific are warming rapidly, suggesting El Nino could arrive sooner than expected, resulting in wetter conditions.  The near-term S Am weather outlook is mostly unchanged, although some models removed rain from the Brazilian forecast and increase Arg amounts for next week. Heavy rain is still in the forecast for S Paraguay/S Brazil the next few days. In the U.S. the NWS 6-10 calls for much colder than normal for most of the grain areas with above normal precip from the Dakotas to Michigan. The 8-14 day outlook  is colder/wetter than normal for most of the grain areas.

·         May Corn Down $.0150 at $4.8475; July Down $.0175 at $4.8925.  Fund buying totaled 12 K Tuesday

·         May SB Up $.1750 at $14.3575; July Up $.1675 at $14.1250.  Fund activity:  bought 7 K SB; 6 K SBM and 4 K SBO

·         May Wheat Down $.0275 at $6.8975; July Wheat Down $.0350 at $6.92.  The funds bought 10 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Some analysts expecting March plantings to come in around 93-94 million, versus 92.0 Ag Outlook forecast

·         Keep in eye on Japan:  given history/competitive U.S. prices and recent buying spree, they could add another 40 mbu to U.S. export estimates

·         Early trade thoughts on March 1 corn stocks near 7.2 bbu +/-; ATI at 7.15 billion

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Negative crush margins, sluggish Chinese protein demand, large stocks coming just at the time when S America supplies an average of 200 mbu per month. Could back up fall U.S. export program

·         Anecdotal trade acreage estimates said to be in the 80-81, versus USDA baseline of 79.5 million; then again, nearby futures have only risen $1.60 per bushel or so since early November lows

·         Strong Feb NOPA-derived domestic meal disappearance has some analysts raising crush estimate

·         Crimea, deteriorating HRW ratings adding support to wheat market

ENERGY

·         Futures are generally lower: QCLJ14, -$0.11 at $99.59; QRBJ, -$0.0140; QNGJ, +$.003 and QHOJ, -$.0192; rise in crude stocks expected this morning

·         Cash ethanol markets were widely mixed: Chicago up 13 ¾’s; the Gulf up 3 ½; NY lost 4.35 cents; Dallas rose 7; Tampa was a penny higher and LA prices lost 3 ½ cents to $3.43 per gallon

·         EIA estimates (API):  crude, +2.3 mb (+5.9); gasoline, -0.9 (-1.4); distillates, -0.6 (-0.7)

·         RINs, mostly steady: 2012’s held at 46-47; 2013’s unchanged at 47-48; with 2014’s a ¼ cent higher, 45-46

·         Logistical issues further tighten the April RBOB/ethanol spread: in nearly 10 ½ cents to $.3380

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;             

·    &​nbsp;    Choice boxed beef values gained $1.21 yesterday to $244.06 for a 2^nd day of record highs

·         Lean hog futures set another new record high yesterday with nearby April settling at $123.225

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value set a new record high for a eighth day yesterday gaining $3.55 to $129.53

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $2.01 yesterday to $121.13

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather, Global Ag