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Market Trend Corn, 1 to 2 Lower, Soybeans, 14 to 15 Lower, Wheat, 4 to 5 Higher

September 22, 2014 07:22 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, 1 to 2 Lower; Soybeans, 14 to 15 Lower; Wheat, 4 to 5 Higher

·         Growth concerns, or lack of in the world’s most populous country are weighing on international markets this morning. Asia ended the overnight quite a bit lower:  the Nikkei lost .71%; Shanghai fell 1.66% and the Hang Seng dropped 1.44%. Europe is faring a little better with the FTSE off .83%; CAC 40, .18% lower and the DAX, down .10%.  Pre-market #’s in the U.S. have a similar tone:   Dow, -41; S&P500, -7.25 and the NAS, -16.  Energy futures are weaker; the $ Index, off .025 and gold is $2.70 cheaper at $1,213

·         T-Storm Weather: Despite a few thunderstorms in the west early this next week, most of the region averages drier and warmer than usual through late-month, resulting in favorable conditions for corn and soybean harvesting (and SRW wheat planting).  A few thunderstorms occasionally slow HRW wheat planting in the central and southern Plains, but the heavy rain threat is greatly reduced in Oklahoma and Texas.  The next chance for organized rainfall in the Corn Belt is low and most likely within a few days of October 1.  In southern Brazil, occasional thunderstorms improve soil moisture for future corn and soybean planting

·         Dec Corn Down $.0125 at $3.025; March Down $.0125 at $3.43.   The funds sold 7 K on Friday

·         Nov Soybeans Down $.1425 at $9.4275; Jan Down $.15 at $9.5025.  The funds again sold 6 K SB, 5 K SBM & 5 K SBO at week’s end

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0550 at $4.80; March Up $.0425 at $4.9525.  The funds sold  another 6 K on Friday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research: USDA Crop Progress likely to show U.S. corn crop Good/Excellent near steady at 74% vs, 55% last yr.

·         December 2014 corn futures closed at $3.31 ½ on Friday.  This is the lowest closing price for a nearby December corn contract for this date since 2009 ($3.18)

·         U.S. corn harvest estimated at 8-13% as of Sept. 21 compared to 7% last year and the 5-year avg. of approx. 15%,

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 33.8 needed; 29.2 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 5.8 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 31 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Crop Progress likely to show U.S. soybean crop Good/Excellent near steady at 72% vs. 50% last year

·         Export Inspections; Soybeans, 33.8 needed; 9.4 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 6,831 contracts

·         U.S. spring wheat harvest estimated at 85-90% as of Sept. 21 vs. 93% last year and the 5-year average of approx. 92%

·         Commitment of Traders: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions increase 4,680 contracts  

ENERGY

·         Futures are lower: QCLV14, -$0.19 at $92.22; QRBV,-$0.0135; QNGV, $.000; and QHOV, -$.0113

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago steady; New York up 1 ¾; Gulf down 1 ½; Dallas steady; Tampa eased 1; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $1.77 ½ per gallon

·         RINs slightly firmer: 2012’s up ½ at 45-45 ½; 2013’s gained 3/8 to 45 ¼-46; and 2014’s were 3/8 higher at 45 ¼-46

·         The October RBOB/Ethanol spread gained $.0534 on Friday, increasing to $.9542/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;         

·        &n​bsp;Choice boxed beef values fell $1.17 Friday and have lost $7.83 over the last six trading days

·         USDA Cattle on Feed confirms record small August placements and lowest September 1 on-feed since 1999

·         Light cash cattle trading on Friday at mostly $159, down $2 to $3 from the week before

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $0.40 to $105.15.  October futures up $3.00 to $105.975 and are $0.825 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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