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Market Trend Corn, 1 to 2 Lower, Soybeans, 1 to 2 Higher; Wheat 1

October 16, 2014 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, 1-2 Lower; Soybeans, 1-2 Higher; Wheat, ½ to 1 Lower.    Europe:  Wheat, - 2 ½; Corn, - 7 ¼            

·       &nb​sp; Don’t expect a quick turn-around in 401-K values; futures point to a lower opening and overseas markets did little overnight to stem the wave of selling.  The Nikkei lost nearly 2 ¼% of its value; Shanghai dropped .71% and the Hang Seng was down over 1%.  Europe is off to a weaker start—France continues to lead the way down, -1.87%; the FTSE is worth 1.6% less and the DAX, off 1.34%.  Drivers?  You name it—falling U.S. retail sales, weak producer prices, Ebola; deflation fears, plunging oil prices, stagnation in Europe, on and on.  U.S. pre-markets are heading for the exits:  Dow, -174; S&P, -24 ¼; NAS, -52.7. $ Index, +.27; energy, weaker; gold, $.80 cheaper at $1,243.50

·         T-Storm Weather: Temperatures across the U.S. Midwest fluctuate and a few showers occur, but the main point is that most areas stay dry as conditions for corn / soybean harvesting and SRW wheat planting continually improve.  That said, only 24% and 40% of corn and soybeans were harvested as of Sunday, compared to 29-year averages of 42% and 57% complete.  Given that the coverage of high-topsoil wetness sharply increased for corn and soybeans in recent days, and remains high for SRW wheat, it will likely take a few days before conditions improve across a large area

·         Dec Corn Down $.0150 at $3.46; March Dn $.0125 at $3.5925.   The funds sold 7 K at mid-week  

·         Nov SB Up $.01 at $9.5350; Jan Up $.01 at $9.62.  Funds sold 5 K SB; bought 3 K SBM; sold 6 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Down $.01 at $5.05; March Down $.01 at $5.17.  The funds sold a total of 1 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM                    &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                 

&​middot;         T-storm Weather: Conditions for U.S. corn harvest steadily improve into late-month

·         ATI Research: At $171 per MT, Black Sea corn prices are trading at a $10 discount to the U.S.

·         Private crop consultant: Full-season corn planting in key state of Minas Gerais, Brazil has been delayed by dry weather

·         Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon vs. $0.23 last week but well below $0.69 last year.  EIA report at10:00 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: September-November U.S. soybean exports are expected to approach 710mbu this year

·         T-storm Weather: Sustained heat and dryness continue to suppress rainfall and soybean planting across Center-West and Southeast Brazil through Sunday.  Isolated thunderstorms occur Monday-Wednesday but more will be needed

·         Private crop consultant: Heavy rainfall in southern Brazil has resulted in a lot of diseases for wheat

·         T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat establishment occurs under favorable conditions into late-month due to adequate soil moisture profiles and above-average warmth

ENERGY

·         Futures are again mostly lower:  QCLX14,-$1.57 at $80.20; QRBX,-$0.0049; QNGX, +$.014; andQHOX, -$.0305

·         On Wednesday, a mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets: Chicago unchanged; Gulf up ½; New York off 1 ¾; Dallas and Tampa down 1; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.83 ½ per gallon

·         EIA estimates (API):  crude, +2.2 mb (+10.2); gasoline, -1.4 (-3.1); distillates, -1.7 (-0.2)

·         Slightly weaker trend in RINs: 2012’s dn ¼ at 47 ¾-48 ¼; 2013’s off 3/8 at 47 ¾-48 ¼; and 2014’s eased ¼ to 48-48 ¼

·         The November RBOB/Ethanol spread gained ½ cent to $.5137 per gallon Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp; 

·       &n​bsp; Choice boxed beef values gained $1.08 yesterday and have increased $12.17 over the last eight trading days

·         After falling $7.05 over the previous six trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 14-cents yesterday

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.16 to $109.54. December futures dn $3.00 to $91.925 and are $17.615 below the index

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 3.7% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is 3.4% above last year

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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