HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, 1-2 Higher; Soybeans, Down 4-5; Wheat, Steady to Up ½

·         Washington’s dysfunctional behavior is weighing on overseas markets this morning:  Japan’s Nikkei lost 2.06%; the Kospi fell .7% and the Hang Seng, 1.2%.  In Europe, the FTSE, France’s CAC-40 and Germany’s DAX were all expected to start the day in negative territory. And in Italy, a split in the ruling coalition could be mean new elections, delaying needed in economic reforms.   Here in the U.S., the likelihood of a government shut-down at midnight is pushing futures like-wise lower:  S&P, down 15 ¼; the Dow, off 131 and the Nasdaq, off 25 ¼.  Gold is $3 lower; the energies are weaker and the $ Index modestly higher, 80.385.

·         The latter part of the weekend saw a line of .1 to .4” showers move across the Central/Eastern Corn Belt but little disruption to harvest occurred as many combines were back in the field shortly after noon on Sunday. The Central U.S. will see above normal temperatures for much of this week.  Frosts/light freezes are possible late next weekend for the far northern production areas but T-Storm sees little threat to crops.  Once the brief cold spell passes, another week of average to above readings should encompass most of the Belt.  1-2” rains fell across S BA and La Pampa over the weekend but key corn acres in Cordoba generally received less than ½”.  S Brazil was wet with scattered showers across the Center-West region.  Arg will be cool/dry this week; C Brazil can expect 1 ¼ to 2 ½” amounts while ½” to 1” is expected to the north & south, some planting delays are possible.

·         Dec Corn Up $.02 at $4.56; Mar Corn Up $.02 at $4.6850.  The funds sold 2 on  Friday    

·         Nov Soybeans Down $.04 at $13.1575; Jan SB Down $.0425 at $13.1725.  Funds buy 2 K SB, 3 SK SBM and sold 2 K SBO on Friday

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0025 at $6.8325; Mar Wheat Up $.0025 at $6.9175.  The funds bought 4 K on Friday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Average trade estimate for Sep 1 corn stocks:   688 mb with a 552-765 range and versus 989 LY

·         Export inspections out at 10:00—15-20 corn likely; 2-4 milo

·         Managed net short position increases from 62 K LW to 81 K

·         Corn harvest progress to reach 17-18%, up from 7% LW and versus 32% average

·         Corn ratings expected to be unchanged to up 1 percentage point

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export inspections:  15-25 soybeans likely; 35-40 wheat

·         Trade estimates Sep 1 wheat stocks at 1.938 bbu (range:   1.819-2.085) , down 167 mbu from Sep 2012

·         September 1 SB stocks put at 126 mbu (range:   112-155), against 169 a year ago

·         Managed wheat contracts reduce short position to 38 K from 53 last week

·         In beans, managed money/large traders reduced longs from 157 K to 141 K

·         Expect soybean harvest to reach 12-14% this week, versus 16% average and 38% a year ago

·         % SB rated G/E is expected to remain steady to up 1

·         Spring wheat harvesting should gain 3-4 points to 97%; winter wheat plantings estimated at 37-38 vs 41% average

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are weaker:  QCLX13,  -$147 to $101.39; QRBX, -0.0185; QNGX, -$.051 and QHOX, -$.0184

·         Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Friday:  4 cent gains were reported for Dallas, Tampa and LA; Chicago was up 7 ½ and the Gulf, 8 cents.  NY was the lone exception, off 2 cents to $2.45 per gallon

·         RINs, lower: 2012’s fell 4 ½ cents to 44-51; 2013’s dropped 4 to 45-52 and 2014’s were also off 4 ½ to 46-53

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;              

·  &​nbsp;      Choice boxed beef values fell 97-cents Friday, but are still up 24-cents from a week earlier

·         Cash cattle lightly traded Friday afternoon at $126, up $2 from the week before

·         Hogs & Pigs indicates little long term impact from PED virus and little interest in breeding herd expansion

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 8-cents Friday and has increased $2.29 over the last three trading days

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather