HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 1-2 Higher; Soybeans, 1-2 Higher; Wheat, 3-4 Higher. Europe: steady wheat, corn, up 5
· China’s manufacturing sector showed a surprising amount of improvement in September; European business activity falls to a 9-month low and geopolitical risk heightens as the U.S. and 5 Arab nations attack the Islamic State’s headquarters in Syria. Shanghai closes up 1.5%; the Hang Seng rises .35% and the Nikkei gives up .24%. Europe is mostly higher early—DAX, +.03%; FTSE, -.13% and CAC 40, +.42%. Pre-market activity finds Dow futures up 48; the S&P, +6 ¼ and the NASDAQ, +14.80. The $ Index is up a modest .01 at 84.93; gold is $.40 cheaper at $1220.60 and energy futures are mixed
· T-Storm Weather: Mild and mainly dry weather dominate most corn, soybean, and wheat areas of the central U.S. through at least Monday . The Sept. 22 mean maximum was 72°F for corn and soybean drying / maturation, and warmer temperatures are expected through much of the period. Outside of a low chance for rain in the Delta Sunday-Monday, next chance for rain holds until next Tuesday across central/northern Plains, & then other areas later next week. Otherwise, heavy rains affect South Brazil and Paraguay over the next week. Rain chances quickly diminish with northward extent into Center-West and Southeast Brazil
· Dec Corn Up $.0150 at $3.27; March Up $.0125 at $3.3950. The funds sold 5 K on Tuesday
· Nov Soybeans Up $.0225 at $9.3850; Jan Up $.0175 at $9.4550. The funds sold 2 K SB, 2 K SBM & bought 3 K SBO yesterday
· Dec Wheat Up $.04 at $4.80; March Up $.0375 at $4.92. Tuesday had the funds selling 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: With U.S. corn running at an $18-$20 premium to the other major exporters, ideas on a respectable September-November U.S. export program in excess of 350mbu are fading
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” is most likely across the central/northern Plains and Corn Belt Sept. 30-Oct. 1
· Private crop consultant estimating total 14/15 corn acreage in Brazil will decline 4-6% compared to a year ago
· Ethanol margins: $0.67 per gallon vs. $0.72 last week and below $0.83 last year. EIA report at9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. remains low cost soybean export supplier; $0.38/bu discount to Argentina, next cheapest supplier
· Private crop consultant estimating total 14/15 soybean acreage in Brazil will increase 5% compared to a year ago
· ATI Research: Return to normal HRW abandonment in 2015 could see harvested acreage jump 14% to a 7-year high
· T-storm Weather: Only 12% and 11% of HRW and SRW production were drier than average over the last 60 days
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed: QCLX14, +$0.04 at $91.60; QRBX,-$0.0094; QNGX, +$.016; and QHOX, -$.0111
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to lower on Tuesday: Chicago off 1 3/8; New York and Gulf unch; Dallas down 2 ½; Tampa eased 3 ½; and LA was a penny lower at $1.73 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): crude, +0.5 mb (-6.5); gasoline, -0.2 (+0.1); distillates, +0.3 (+3.0)
· RINs posted small gains: 2012’s up ¼ at 45 ½-46 ½; 2013’s climbed ¼ to 46-47; and 2014’s added ½ to 46 ½-47
· The October RBOB/Ethanol spread moved past a $1.01.gallon, gaining $.0620 yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values fell $3.85 yesterday and have lost $12.37 over the last eight trading days
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $161 to $162, but no packer bids. Cattle traded LW at mostly $159.00
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.39 yesterday and has increased $6.35 over the last four trading days
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.49 to $105.79. October futures up $0.575 to $107.875 and are $2.085 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather