HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, 1 Lower; Soybeans, SQ, Up 5, SU, ½ Lower; Wheat, 4 to 5 Lower
· Asia reacts to Ukraine incident, Nikkei (-1.01%) and the Hang Seng (-.28%) close lower; Shanghai manages to eke out a .17% gain overnight. Adding to global market uncertainty is Israel’s launch of a ground invasion into Gaza. All of Europe is weaker with the DAX off .66%; the FTSE is .42% in the red and France’s CAC 40 is .13% lower. U.S. sanctions weigh on Russia’s MICEX, off nearly 4%. U.S. futures mixed: Dow, leaning towards a 10 lower opening; both the S&P (+1.25) and the NAS (+4) are higher, however. Outside markets: CLQ is 40 cents higher; gold is $6.40 lower and the $ Index is slightly firmer, +.030 at 80.60
· T-Storm Weather: Coolness ends over the next few days as surface-level high pressure exits. A sharply warmer pattern unfolds within Saturday-Monday, leading to above-average warmth across a large area (especially the Plains). Waves of energy flow along the edge of warmth, but the low-level wind setup does not appear ideal to support high coverage of heavy rainfall. Instead, scattered (not widespread) thunderstorm clusters unfold in varying areas next week. Around July 25-27, one of the waves of energy is likely to pull cooler air to the south, keeping the core of heat west of key areas for the end of the month
· Sep Corn Down $.0125 at $3.7825; December Down $.01 at $3.8625. Ukraine airline incident contributes to funds buying 4 K
· August SB Up $.0525 at $11.80; Sep Down $.0025 at $11.1025. The funds even on SB; bought 1 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Down $.05 at $5.4575; December Down $.05 at $5.6850. Funds were estimated to have bought 4 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: July is pacing to rank #5 coolest in 120 years, but upcoming warmth prevents it from staying similarly cool
· Updated NWS forecast for August calling for equal chance of above- or below-normal precip for U.S. Corn Belt
· ATI Research: U.S. corn silking for week end July 20 likely to be 50-55% vs. 39% in 2013 & 55% for the 5-year avg.
· December 2014 corn futures settled $3.87 ¼ Thurs.; December 2013 futures closed at $5.02 on same date in 2013
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Updated NWS forecast for August-October: Below-to much-below-normal temps for large share of Midwest soybeans
· T-storm Weather: Total of 20% of U.S. soybean production received less than half its average rainfall the past 14 days
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales continue to be routine; unshipped book, 217mbu v. 5-year avg. of 202
· T-storm Weather: Total of 60% of U.S. spring wheat production received less than half its average rainfall past 14 days
ENERGY
· Futures are firmer this a.m.: QCLQ14, +$0.28 at $103.47; QRBQ, +$0.0084; QNGQ, +$.012; andQHOQ, +$.0145
· A mostly firmer trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up ½; New York down 2; Gulf added 1; Tampa was 2 ½ higher; Dallas gained 2; and LA was 3 ½ higher at $2.41 per gallon
· RINs were higher: 2012’s up 3 ¼ to 51-53; 2013’s firmed 3 ½ to 51-53; and 2014’s were 3 higher at 51-52
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread edged a penny lower to $.7717/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; After firming 29-cents Wednesday, Choice boxed beef values fell $1.01 yesterday
· Cash cattle trading continued yesterday at mostly $155, steady with Wednesday and down $1 from last week
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.25 yesterday to a new record high of $135.96
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.16 to $134.17. August future down $1.675 to $128.85 and are $5.32 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather