HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, 1 Lower; Soybeans, ½ to 1 Lower; Wheat, ½ to 1 Higher
· Deliveries: 453 SBO; 242 Chicago Wheat; 197 KC Wheat
· Europe moves lower over fears strong data from the U.S. showing factory activity reached a 2 ½ year high in November will lead to the Federal Reserve scaling back its stimulus efforts sooner, rather than later. All 3 major EU indices were lower with the DAX off 1.1%; the FTSE fell .8% and France’s CAC-40 was off an even larger amount, 1.6%. Asian markets were mixed: Nikkei, up .6%; the Hang Seng, off .5% and the SSE, up .7%. U. S. futures indicate a lower opening with the Dow 39 in the red. Gold is fractionally higher; the energies have turned mixed and the $ Index is off a ¼ point at 80.69
· T-storm Weather: Numerous cool fronts flow across Brazil and Paraguay over the next 7-10 days; occasional thunderstorms result with seasonably-heavy amounts. Mainly dry weather occurs in much of Argentina over the next five to seven days (except far north), which will improve corn and soybean planting (and wheat harvesting) prospects. The next chance for thunderstorms in key central / southern areas of Argentina unfolds Sunday-Monday, which may slow planting (while maintaining adequate soil moisture for corn, soybeans, and sunflower).
· Dec Corn Down $.01 at $4.1550; Mar Corn Down $.0050 at $4.24. Funds were sellers of 2 K to start the week
· Jan SB Down $.0050 at $13.2075; Mar SB Down $.01 at $13.0550. Funds sell 5 K SB, 4 K SBM, buy 1 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.0075 at $6.5050; Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $6.6225. The funds sold 3 KMonday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2013 corn futures traded $4.10 on Monday--lowest price since July 6, 2010; new contract lows made in all 2014 contacts, however: March ($4.18 ¾); May (4.26 ¾); July (4.34 ¼); September ($4.40 ¾) & December ($4.48 ¾)
· ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout down 52mbu from last week to 1.851Bbu with 14/15 down 52 million to 2.130Bbu
· ATI Research: Weekly corn exports are forecast at 32mbu per week, against 27 of late; the 5-year average of 28.4 million and last year’s mediocre 12.5 per week showing
· Export Inspections; Corn, 35.7mbu (27.7 needed), China took 21.1. Milo, 0.3 (3.8) with China in for 47 thou bushels
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Expect soybean exports to be at 50-60 per week for another month comparing to 48 LY and the 5-year average of 47 per week
· ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout is unchanged from last week at 86mbu with 14/15 also stable at 325mbu
· Brazil soybean planting progress likely approaching 85-90%
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 52.6mbu (20.8 needed) with China taking 36.7
· T-storm Weather: Dramatic change toward unusual coldness the next 5 days across U.S. HRW wheat. Significant snowpack is not expected for NE Colorado, NW Kansas & much of Nebraska. Too early to determine winterkill
· ATI Research: 13/14 HRS wheat carryout unchanged at 189mbu with 14/15 pegged at 219mbu
· Export Inspections: Wheat, 15.5mbu (17.0 needed); China takes 2.3
ENERGY
· Energy markets—mixed: QCLF14,+$.29 at $94.11; QRBF, +$0.0046; QNGF, -$.019 and QHOF, -$.0025
· Vs. last Wed. (most recent report), a mostly weaker trend in cash ethanol markets: Chicago down 18; Gulf off 12 ¾; Tampa declined 7; Dallas was 9 ½ lower; New York bucked the trend, up 2; & LA was 13 ½ lower to $2.53 ½ per gallon
· RINs were firmer: 2012’s up 1 ¼ to 27-28; 2013’s were 1 ½ higher at 28-29 ½; & 2014’s gained 1 ¼ to 28 ½-30
· The January RBOB/December ethanol spread slammed in over 15 ½ cents to $.4784/gallon Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 18-cents yesterday and have increased $4.48 over the last six trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $132.66, up $2.11 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.11 yesterday and has increased $2.60 over the last two trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price eased 11-cents yesterday to $81.79
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather