HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, ¾ higher; Soybeans, SU, down 1; SX, up 5; Wheat, up 1-2.   

·         A week’s worth of global stock markets gains seems to be losing steam today. Most of the Asian bourses ended trading flat and those in Europe are starting off slightly weaker. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher yesterday as concerns over the Syrian situation eased and investors reacted positively to a 10.4% yr to yr increase in China’s August industrial output and a 13.4% increase in August retail sales from the prior month, suggesting a move towards stability in the world’s 2^nd largest economy.  Outside markets:  gold, down $4; the $ Index, fractionally lower at 81.815 with much of the energy complex trading slightly firmer.

·         Light showers occurred on a line extending from NW KS, through SE NE and C IA into much of WI the past 24 hours, some 1/2:” amounts were noted.  The next 5-7 days will be mostly dry for the next week but after that, rainfall chances improve.  In the N Plains, the weather looks drier and this should facilitate spring wheat harvesting.  Little frost chance is seen in the region near term, allowing corn and soybeans to properly mature.

·         Sep Corn Up $.02 at $4.7675; Dec Corn Up $.0075 at $4.6975. Funds were buyers of 4 K yesterday   

·         Sep Soybeans Down $.0075 at $14.03; Nov SB Up $.05 at $13.60.  Funds went home even on SB & SBM, sold 1 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat, no trade; Mar Wheat Up $.0175 at $6.4825.  The funds bought 4 K wheat on Tuesday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·         WASDE report at 11:00 CDT Thursday: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn crop is 13.641Bbu in a range from 13.360-14.000

·         WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. corn 13/14 carrryout is 1.739Bbu (1.837 in August); range, 1.278-2.296

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread heat affects the southern third of corn areas today before transition to coolness

·         Corn dent for week ending Sept. 15 likely to be 80-85%, which is well below last year’s 96% but near average of 86%

·         Corn mature for week ending Sept. 15 likely to be 20-25%, which is well below last year’s 73% and the average of 41%

·         ATI Research: We are using about 335mbu (25-26/week) for Sept-Nov U.S. corn exports; 10-15/week for next 4 weeks

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA WASDE report at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for soybean production is 3.134Bbu in a range from 2.980-3.208

·         WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. soybean 13/14 carrryout is 165mbu (220 in August), range, 105-220

·         Soybeans dropping leaves for week end Sept. 15 likely to be 25-30%--well behind last year’s 54% and the 35% avg.

·         ATI Research: Sept-Nov U.S. soybean exports est. is 520mbu; much stronger weekly shipments in Oct/Nov vs. Sept

·         T-storm Weather: Heavy rain occurs in western areas of Central/Southern Plains over Thursday-Saturday.  A major improvement in soil moisture occurs for at least 25% of the HRW wheat belt

·         WASDE report: Average trade guess for U.S. all wheat 13/14 carrryout is 544mbu (551 in August), range, 353-600

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are mostly higher:  QCLV13, up $.05 at $107.43; QRBV, +.0059; QNGV,-$.030 and QHOV, +$.0192

·         EIA estimates (API in parenthesis):  crude, down 1.4 mb (-2.3); gasoline, down 900 K (+0.2); distillates, +0.4 (+0.8)

·         Cash ethanol markets ranged from unchanged (LA) to as much as 11 ¼ cents lower as Chicago dropped to $2.57 ¾ per gal.  The Dallas/Tampa markets were 2 to 2 ½ cents weaker; NY fell 4 ½ cents and the Gulf was off 8 ¾

·         RINs: 2012’s eased a ½ cent to 67 ½ to 70; 2013’s were a penny lower to 68 ½ to 70; and 2014’s also dropped a penny, to a range of 68 ½ to 71 cents

·         More supply worries as the October RBOB/ethanol spread tucked in close to 8 cents at $.8407 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​;                        ​    

·         Choice boxed beef values eased 60-cents yesterday and have lost $2.83 over the last four trading days

·         Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards in the South asking $125, but no packer bids.  Cattle traded last week at $123

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 45-cents yesterday and has gained $1.12 over the last three trading days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed $1.15 yesterday to $92.41

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather