HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, ½ to 1 Higher; Soybeans, 3-4 Higher; Wheat, 3-4 Lower.
· Fed takes a cautious approach, leaves timing on wording for interest rate increases unchanged. Nov Chinese manufacturing activity slips to a 6-month low; follows October’s 2.6% decline in property prices. Nikkei, Shanghai both close .07% higher; the Hang Seng fades .10%. Europe is weaker at mid-day—CAC 40 off 1.2%; DAX, down .77% and the FTSE, .62% lower. Pre-market indications point to Wall Street starting lower: DOW, -60; NAS, -18 and the S&P, 8 lower. Energy futures are slightly positive; the $ Index is up .081 at 87.98 and gold is $.50 higher at $1,194.40
· T-storm Weather: A stormy pattern is beginning across South America and we expect it to continue over the next 10 days. A cool front continues to trigger thunderstorms across central and northern Argentina today before exiting, then across Brazil and Paraguay from today-Friday forward (except northeast Brazil where upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall). Therefore, (1) soil moisture improves as conditions for remaining first-crop corn and soybean planting deteriorate into next week across Brazil and Paraguay, and (2) soil moisture improves and corn/soybean planting temporarily slows in Argentina due to thunderstorms
· Dec Corn Up $.0075 at $3.64; March Up $.0075 at $3.7675. The funds sold 10 K, weighing on futures Wednesday
· Jan SB Up $.0325 at $10.08; Mar Up $.0375 at $10.1575. Funds: again sold 7 K SB, 7 K SBM but sold 2 K SB O
· Dec Wheat Down $.0350 at $5.3425; March Down $.03 at $5.38. The funds liquidated 6 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 20 to 28 mbu corn
· Ethanol grind: 970,000 barrels per day for week end Nov. 14—up 24 thou vs. last week and up 7.3% vs. last year. This week’s total is the 2nd highest since this data set began in June 2010 (highest: 972,000 for week end June 13, 2014)
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 0.75”-1.50” is probable across key areas of central/southern Argentina the next 10 days
· December 2014 corn futures closed at $3.63 ¼ on Wed.—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 27
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects soybeans, 26 to 37 mbu; soymeal, -100-100; soyoil, 5-20
· T-storm Weather: Rains cause conditions for soybean planting to deteriorate into next week across Brazil & Paraguay
· January 2015 soybean futures closed at $10.04 ¾ on Wed.—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 24
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Large system produces 0.75”-1.50” of rain for U.S. SRW wheat in Corn Belt, Delta Saturday-Sunday
· Updated NWS forecast today; recent long-term forecasts projected improvement in drought outlook for HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLZ14, +$0.12 at $74.70; QRBZ, -$0.0099; QNGZ, +$.094; andQHOZ, +$.0125
· Cash ethanol markets recorded moderate losses on Wednesday: Chicago off 5 ¾; Gulf down 5 ½; Dallas eased 7 ½; Tampa declined 7; New York slipped 10; and LA was 9 ¾ lower at $2.58 ½ per gallon
· RINs steady to up slightly: 2013’s unch at 53-58; 2014’s up ½ to 56 ½-58 ½; and 2015’s gained 1/8 to 56 ¼-58
· Ethanol falters, the Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread moves back to a premium for the former, $.1688/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values were 50-cents higher on Wednesday and are up $3.35 vs. a week ago
· New contract highs were again made on Wednesday for February, April, June and October 2015 live cattle futures
· USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased $1.37 on Wed., is down $1.78 v. last week & at lowest level since Feb. 11
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.62 to $88.75. December futures up $0.225 to $91.775 and are $3.025 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather